Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/25/23)

The Dallas Mavericks (17-12) battle the Phoenix Suns (14-14) this Christmas Day (12/25/23). Get Mavericks vs. Suns player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Mavericks vs. Suns game?

Same Game Parlay (-120 DK): Luka Doncic 8+ 1st Quarter Points & Kevin Durant 8+ 1st Quarter Points 

Doncic averages 9.1 points per game during the first quarter (via NBA.com), which is only behind Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for largest across the NBA. The 6’7” guard’s size advantage allows him to bully smaller defenders, and his crafty dribble and knack for creating space punishes wing defenders. Essentially, Doncic is unguardable in isolation, and arguably no player creates more advantages via drives. 

He faces a Phoenix defense that possesses little resistance around the basket with Jusuf Nurkic out. Drew Eubanks doesn’t have the defensive instincts or athleticism to meet Doncic in the paint, so it should be a feast for the Slovenian. Dallas’ offense will continue to be fully controlled by Doncic too, as Kyrie Irving is unlikely to make his return. 

Finally, it’s a personal game for Doncic considering the opponent. Dallas’ infamous 2022 playoff battle against Phoenix forged an intense rivalry between him and Devin Booker. Doncic has averaged 34 points per game versus the Suns since that series, so look for him to enter attack mode early. 

Meanwhile, Durant averages the fourth most first quarter points at 8.8 per game. Dallas will attempt to turn Booker into a pass-first guard, thus opening up isolation opportunities for Durant. He meets a Dallas defense that is allowing the second most points per game to power forwards and the sixth most mid-range field goal attempts. 

This same game parlay needs to hit about 55 percent of the time for it to be profitable in the long run. 

Kevin Durant Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125 DK)

Dereck Lively II will likely miss this contest, forcing Dallas to once again frequently play a small-ball lineup. Outside of Dwight Powell’s roughly 20 minutes, the Mavericks will be fielding a power forward at center (like Grant Williams). While it’s conducive to rebounds, Durant’s line has climbed a bit too much. 

He only averages 9.3 rebound chances per game because he isn’t crashing the glass like he’s 25-years-old. The last time Durant notched nine rebounds was November 17th, and the veteran has reached this mark in only 3 of his past 20 games, or 15 percent of the time. It’s a good matchup, but it does not justify this uncharacteristically high line. 

Durant must fail to reach nine rebounds about 55 percent of the time. Therefore, does Durant snag nine rebounds in 45 of 100 simulated games? Based on his rebounding trends this season, that would be a resounding no to me. 

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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