Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Predictions, Starting Lineups (3/14/24)

The Dallas Mavericks (38-28) take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-20) this Thursday (3/14/24). Get Mavericks vs. Thunder moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

For the prop to cash, there must be two made threes by the time the game clock hits 8:59 in the first quarter.

Oklahoma City gives up the 6th most three-point attempts per game, as well as the 10th most wide open three-point attempts per game (via NBA.com). Opponents own the 3rd lowest paint field goal percentage and average the 9th lowest paint field goal attempts against them. Chet Holmgren’s elite interior defense combined with OKC’s tendency to overhelp inside essentially persuades teams to adopt a jump shot heavy offensive approach, which means a large diet of triples.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense allows the 11th most three-point attempts and 8th most wide open three-point attempts on a per-game basis. Although they assuredly do not boast a similar paint defense to the Thunder, their late rotations and often sloppy closeouts give clean looks to outside shooters.

The involved defenses are vulnerable to shooters, but can the offenses convert? The Mavericks rank 2nd in three-point attempt rate and 12th in 3PT%. Although the Thunder do not have a large three-point attempt rate themselves (18th), they lead the NBA in 3PT%.

Overall, the team profiles project a ton of shots from deep in this matchup.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: 2 or More 3PM in the First 3 Minutes (-120 FD)

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Best Odds

Luka Doncic tweaked his hamstring, so it’s unlikely that he will suit up. If he cannot play, then Josh Green or Tim Hardaway Jr may get the start, and Kyrie Irving’s offensive burden balloons. This injury explains the mammoth 11-point spread here. It’s worth noting that Oklahoma City (2nd) and Dallas (5th) both rank top five in cover percentage this season.

For the Mavericks’ +400 moneyline to be profitable in the long run, they must win at least 20.1 percent of the time.

Dallas Mavericks Starting Lineup

PG: Kyrie Irving
SG: Josh Green
SF: Derrick Jones Jr
PF: PJ Washington
C: Daniel Gafford

Oklahoma City Thunder Starting Lineup

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Luguentz Dort
SF: Josh Giddey
PF: Jalen Williams
C: Chet Holmgren

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Injuries

Luka Doncic’s status is murky at the moment, but it’s probably wise to assume he misses the game given the nature of his injury. Outside of him, the teams will be at full strength here.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Key Matchups

Chet Holmgren’s Defense

Daniel Gafford is a dangerous lob threat who may wreak havoc as a roller here. Holmgren locking him down would deter the pass and subsequently force the Mavericks to seek out other avenues of scoring. If he dominates as a help defender and deters drivers, then Dallas likely turns to the outside shot more frequently too. Overall, Holmgren is a big X Factor in this game.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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