Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (1/25/23)

It’s one of the most exciting rivalries in the NBA as the Memphis Grizzlies look to get their revenge against the Golden State Warriors from their Christmas day defeat. Memphis has quickly risen to be one of the most polarizing and fun teams to watch in the league, dominating the Western Conference. As for Golden State, they have been severely disappointing this year because of a mixture of injuries and lack of depth. Now fully healthy, can they dethrone the Grizzlies?

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Oddsmakers think so as they opened the Warriors as a -2.5 favorite on their home court. Bettors are in the same belief as well, backing them up to -3.5 as of writing. This comes as a little surprise as the Warriors welcome back Steph Curry who is arguably one of the best players in the league with his unlimited range and vision. The Warriors thwarted the Grizzlies earlier this season without him, making it even more difficult to get their revenge this time around.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in a flash as oddsmakers opened the total at 237.5. Bettors have smashed the over upon release, drastically moving the over up to as high as 245.5. This is an incredible amount of steam, giving interest towards the under for how high this has climbed. With curious movement, this makes it a pass for me as I am failing to see why the over has sustained an incredible amount of movement. Yet I would be sick to my stomach on an under ticket featuring two high powered offenses.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

The Pick: Golden State Warriors -3.5

The Warriors have had a massively disappointing year per their championship level standards, but this is still a feared unit that is more than capable of making a run. Especially when they play at home, ranking near top of the league in point differential in comparison when they are on the road. They also welcome back star point guard Steph Curry, an immediate massive upgrade to both ends of the court who is a singular game changer.

With that said, I will back the Warriors at any number lower than -4 as they should remind the Grizzlies who the defending champs are with due reason. The Grizzlies have been a formidable defensive unit, but even the best defenses struggle to contain Curry and will be forced to stretch out to respect his perimeter presence. Because of that, this opens up holes for the elite offensive minded Warriors to exploit and attack.

This brings a scoring emphasis from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole, both capable scorers in their own right. The Grizzlies also suffer a massive blow to their interior defense as Steven Adams will be out for multiple weeks while dealing with an injury. This opens the lane for cuts to the rim with only Jaren Jackson Jr manning the paint, making it a tough ask for him to defend multiple slashing guards.

Betting Trends

• Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Golden State
• Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings against each other
• Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Golden State

Key Matchups

Can the Warriors slow down the Grizzlies offense barrage?

Memphis transition offense vs Golden State defense

The Grizzlies offense is a high powered steam engine that excels at down court drives to the basket. Especially with the ball in Ja Morant’s hands, showing shades of prime Derrick Rose as he moves down the court in a flash.

The issue with this is that the Golden State Warriors excel at transitional defense, ranking above average in the league in limiting fast break scoring. Forcing the Grizzlies to go into half court sets has been the blueprint to slowing down their scoring output and the Warriors are fully prepared to do just that.

Verdict

With the return of Steph Curry, and a defensive identity to slow down the opposing scoring output, I will back the Warriors at no higher than -4.

Memphis Grizzlies Starting Lineup

PG: Ja Morant
SG: Desmond Bane
SF: Dillon Brooks
PF: Jaren Jackson jr
C: Santi Aldama

(Team Callout)

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

(Team Callout)

Key Injuries

Memphis Grizzlies Injuries: John Konchar (O), Steven Adams (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: James Wiseman (P), Andre Iguodala (O)