Memphis Vs. Alabama: Predictions, Picks, Odds NCAAB (12/13/22)

This may be the most diverse start to the year that I can remember in quite some time in regard to who may be a serious championship winning threat. That was on full display in Alabama’s last game, thwarting leader Houston Cougars in a comeback effort in what is a huge win for the Crimson Tide. Can they continue to build momentum against a tough Memphis squad? Get, predictions, picks, and odds for the Memphis Vs. Alabama College Basketball game on 12/13/22. 

Memphis Vs. Alabama Odds

Oddsmakers think so as they opened the Crimson Tide as a decent size favorite at -6.5. Bettors have thought otherwise, nudging Memphis down to +6 with potential more steam on its way. This serves as a stylistic matchup as Alabama’s success hinges on their offensive firepower while Memphis has the size and length to disrupt their looks.

As for the total, this is expected to be a track meet with points happening on both ends as oddsmakers set the total at 146.5. Bettors were quick to agree, steaming this up to as high as 150.5 in some shops. This comes as little surprise as both units are well above average in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and possess advantages over each other’s opposing defenses for continuous scoring.

Memphis Vs. Alabama Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Memphis +6.5

While I initially thought I would take the over, the number has surpassed what I was comfortable with buying by steaming up right away. Instead, I will back Memphis in what has serious upset potential written all over it. After a bumbling start, the Tigers are right back on track with a winning streak and an impressive dismantling of Auburn on a neutral court in their last game out.

To make matters even better for Memphis, they now get transfer portal product Damaria Franklin on the court for his first appearance. Franklin averaged nearly 18 points per game and 6.9 rebounds for the UIC Flames, a stud who will be able to contribute right away even if I do expect Franklin to be limited in his first appearance.

While the added scoring will be nice, it’s the Tigers defense that will decide the outcome of this spread ticket. Memphis is currently 20th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom, a unit that causes Havoc with their length and athleticism and turns defense into offense. This bodes especially well against an Alabama squad that has been turnover prone, a unit that ranks well below average in turnover rate on offense.

On top of causing Havoc up top, they guard down low especially well. The Tigers Effective Field Goal Percentage allowed is -10% across the board in comparison to league average on the block. Not only do they excel in smothering looks down low into low quality shots, they also limit second chance opportunities with elite defensive rebounding.

As well as defending the paint at an elite level, Memphis has also been above average in limiting three-point conversion. They allow just barely over 30% completion percentage from deep, an area that will be tested against a Bama team that builds their success off of barraging opposing defenses from the perimeter.

Memphis Vs. Alabama Key Matchups

Can the Tigers offense keep within scoring pace should their defense start off slow against the high-powered Alabama Crimson Tide?

Memphis scoring vs Alabama defense

While the Tigers defense has been elite, their offensive metrics have yet to catch up to that status as they currently rank 48th in AdjO per Kenpom. This is in large part due to their lack of diverse scoring, relying on a top heavy approach with only two players averaging double digit points.

While Kendric Davis is more than capable of willing a team to victory, it is an unsustainable method and he will need as much help as he can get as Alabama is never out of a game with their lightning pace scoring abilities. 

Alabama fields an elite defense themselves, ranked 12th in AdjD. They play sporadically and look to get out in a track meet, but are also susceptible to getting beat at their own game. With Memphis struggling to score in half court sets, they will want to generate their offense off of Havoc on the defensive end and get points in high quality transitions.

Memphis Vs. Alabama Prediction & Verdict

Back Memphis at +6 or better in what will be an exciting defensive showdown.