Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Odds and Game Preview – July 7

A pair of the league’s top scorers — Kahleah Copper (third, 22.4 points per game) and Dearica Hamby (ninth, 18.8) — face off when the Phoenix Mercury (10-10) visit the Los Angeles Sparks (5-15) on July 7, 2024 on AZFamily, Mercury Live, and SportsNet LA.

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Spread: Sparks (+4) to Cover

  • The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (2.2 points) is a little bit less than the 4-point edge DraftKings gives to the Mercury, though the data still has them as the favorite.
  • The Sparks are 9-10-1 against the spread this year.
  • In games this season in which it was an underdog by 4 points or more, Los Angeles has a 9-7 record against the spread.
  • The Mercury have a 12-8-0 record against the spread this season.
  • Phoenix has a 3-3 record against the spread when favored by 4 points or more this season.

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Total: Under 168

  • The model predicts a total 1.6 points lower than the one set by DraftKings for this matchup.
  • Mercury games have gone over 168 points scored, their current matchup’s point total, 10 times (out of 20) this season.
  • This year, nine of Los Angeles’ 20 games have had a combined total of more than 168 points scored.
  • Mercury games have hit the over in nine out of 20 opportunities (45%).
  • The Sparks have hit the over in 10 of their 20 games with a set total (50%).

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Moneyline Winner: Mercury (-175)

  • Prediction: Mercury 84, Sparks 82
  • Phoenix has been a moneyline favorite seven times this season. They’ve finished 5-2 in those games.

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Mercury Leaders

  • The Mercury scoring leader is Copper, who averages 22.4 per contest to go with 4.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists.
  • Natasha Mack is Phoenix’s leading rebounder, pulling down 5.1 per game, while Natasha Cloud is its best passer, averaging 7.4 assists in each contest.
  • The Mercury get the most three-point shooting production out of Diana Taurasi, who makes 2.7 threes per game.
  • Cloud and Mack lead Phoenix on the defensive end, with Cloud leading the team in steals, averaging 1.8 per game, and Mack in blocks, averaging 1.5 per contest.

Mercury Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Brittney Griner Out Toe

Sparks Leaders

  • Hamby has the top spot on the Sparks leaderboards for scoring and rebounding with 18.8 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
  • Aari McDonald dishes out more assists than any other Los Angeles teammate with 3.9 per game. She also scores 9.8 points and grabs 2.2 rebounds per game.
  • Kia Nurse is the top scorer from distance for the Sparks, hitting 1.5 threes per game.
  • Hamby (1.5 steals per game) is the steal leader for Los Angeles while Cameron Brink (2.3 blocks per game) is the block leader.

Sparks Injuries

Name Game Status Injury
Lexie Brown Out Chron’S Disease
Cameron Brink Out For Season Acl
Julie Allemand Out For Season Ankle
Azurá Stevens Out Arm

All stats in this article refer to the 2024 regular season.

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