Predictions for Mets vs. Astros: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – June 30

Sunday’s contest features the New York Mets (40-40) and the Houston Astros (41-41) matching up at Citi Field in what should be a competitive matchup, with a projected 5-4 win for the Mets according to our computer prediction. Game time is at 1:40 PM ET on June 30.

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Mets vs. Astros Matchup Info

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Mets vs. Astros Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Mets 5, Astros 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 9 runs

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Mets vs. Astros Betting Lines

Mets vs Astros Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Mets -125 +105 9 -102 -118

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Mets Betting Insights

  • New York has been victorious in 21, or 52.5%, of the 40 contests it has been chosen as the favorite in this season.
  • The Mets have a mark of 12-12 in contests where sportsbooks favor them by -125 or better on the moneyline.
  • New York and its opponents have hit the over in 42 of 80 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Mets had a 6-3 record in the nine games they were a moneyline favorite over their last 15 matchups.
  • In its past 15 matchups (all 15 of them had set totals), New York and its opponents combined to hit the over nine times.

Astros Betting Insights

  • Houston has won 11 of the 21 games it was listed as the moneyline underdog this season (52.4%).
  • The Astros have a 5-3 record (winning 62.5% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +105 or longer.
  • Houston has combined with opponents to go over the total 30 times this season for a 30-48-4 record against the over/under.
  • In seven games over their past 15 matchups when set as underdogs by sportsbooks, the Astros had a record of 5-2.
  • When it comes to hitting the over, Houston and its opponents are 6-8-1 in its past 15 games with a total.

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Mets vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

Mets’ Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino

  • The 30-year-old has pitched to a 3.29 ERA this season with 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 3.1 walks per nine across 15 games.
  • Luis Severino’s team has been victorious in 63.6% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 7-4.
  • Severino’s team has an 8-7 record in his starts this season.
  • Games started by Severino have a 9-6-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Astros’ Starting Pitcher: Shawn Dubin

  • Over his 14 games this season, opposing hitters have a collective batting average of .299 against him. He has a 5.64 ERA and averages 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
  • Dubin’s team was the moneyline underdog only once in a game he pitched a season ago, and won.
  • His team won the only game he appeared in last season.
  • He pitched in only one game with a total last season, and the teams combined to go under.

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Mets’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 40-40
Home 21-24
Road 19-16
One-Run Games 16-9
Scoring 5+ Runs 27-12

Astros’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 41-41
Home 24-19
Road 17-22
One-Run Games 5-14
Scoring 5+ Runs 32-4

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