New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (3/31/23)

The Mets and Marlins continue their season-opening series on Friday, but the pitching matchup won’t be as stellar as it was on Opening Day. David Peterson and Jesus Luzardo will do battle in Miami as the Marlins look to bounce back. The Mets are slight favorites at -115 on the moneyline, with the over/under at 8 runs.

Let’s make predictions for Friday night’s game and dive into why the Mets have a good chance to make it a 2-0 start to the season.

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction

The Mets showed in the first game of the series why their offense has the advantage over Miami’s, as if there was any doubt. The ability to stay patient against a pitcher like Sandy Alcantara, work walks, and do some damage is a great sign for what’s to come.

The Mets had some trouble against lefties last season, but they performed well against Jesus Luzardo and showed little sign of rust on Thursday.

David Peterson is certainly no Max Scherzer, but he showed flashes last season when his control wasn’t a glaring issue. The light-hitting Marlins were toward the bottom of the league in walks last season, so it should be harder for Peterson to beat himself. The line is close enough for Mets -115 to be the more attractive option.

Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Mets -115

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

The Mets are very slight road favorites at -115 on the moneyline. The over/under is 8 runs.

New York has the more talented team, of course, but the uncertainty of Peterson plus Miami’s (relative) home-field advantage has made this line pretty close to even.

Mets vs. Marlins Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Mets vs. Marlins.

Mets’ Left-Handed Struggles vs. Jesus Luzardo

The Mets struggled mightily against left-handed pitchers in 2022, at least relative to their performance against right-handers. With a batting average gap of nearly 20 points and a larger OPS gap, their lefty issues were the driving force behind Billy Eppler’s failed midseason trade for Darin Ruf.

The Mets currently have four left-handed hitters in their traditional lineup, including Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Can Jesus Luzardo capitalize on what should be an advantage? He had very mixed results against New York – including struggles against Nimmo and McNeil – in what was otherwise a great season for him in 2022.

The Marlins will need the law of averages to swing back in Luzardo’s direction on Friday night.

David Peterson vs. Control Issues

Peterson has the profile of a top-tier major-league starter when you look at his low home run rate and high strikeout rate. He simply has to stop walking so many batters. Peterson issued 4.1 walks per nine innings last season, walking multiple batters in 13 of his 18 starts last season. Control issues have kept his starts short and were part of the reason he ended up in the bullpen last season.

The Mets only walked two Marlins in Thursday’s opener, and Peterson will have to try and keep that up against a light-hitting lineup that didn’t walk often last season. If not, it could be a long day for a Mets bullpen that took care of business on Opening Day.

Mets vs. Marlins Starting Lineups

Mets Starting Lineup

CF Brandon Nimmo L
RF Starling Marte R
SS Francisco Lindor S
1B Pete Alonso R
2B Jeff McNeil L
LF Mark Canha R
DH Daniel Vogelbach L
3B Eduardo Escobar R
C Omar Narvaez L

Marlins Starting Lineup

2B Luis Arraez L
3B Jean Segura R
1B Garrett Cooper R
CF Jazz Chisholm L
DH Jorge Soler R
RF Avisail Garcia R
LF Bryan De La Cruz R
C Jacob Stallings R
SS Joey Wendle L