Predictions for Mets vs. Nationals: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 11

Thursday’s contest at Citi Field has the New York Mets (46-45) going head to head against the Washington Nationals (42-51) at 1:10 PM ET (on July 11). Our computer prediction projects a close 5-4 win for the Mets, so expect a competitive matchup.

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Mets vs. Nationals Matchup Info

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Mets vs. Nationals Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Mets 5, Nationals 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs

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Mets vs. Nationals Betting Lines

Mets vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Mets -148 +124 8.5 -118 -102

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Mets Betting Insights

  • New York has won 27, or 55.1%, of the 49 contests it has been named as the odds-on favorite in this year.
  • This season, the Mets have come away with a win four times in nine chances when named as a favorite of at least -148 or shorter on the moneyline.
  • New York and its opponents have gone over in 48 of 91 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Mets played as the moneyline favorite in 11 of their past 15 games, and they finished 7-4 in those matchups.
  • Over its past 15 outings (all had set totals), New York combined with its opponents to hit the over on the total 10 times.

Nationals Betting Insights

  • Washington has gone 33-45 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 42.3% of those games).
  • When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +124 or longer, the Nationals have gone 20-30 (40%).
  • Washington has played in 93 games with an over/under set, and it has combined with its opponents to go over the total 44 times (44-44-5).
  • In 12 games as underdogs in their past 15 matchups, the Nationals had a record of 3-9.
  • Washington and its opponents have combined to hit the over nine times in its past 15 games with a total.

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Mets vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

Mets’ Starting Pitcher: David Peterson

  • The 28-year-old has an ERA of 3.58 and 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings, with a batting average against of .267 in seven games this season.
  • David Peterson has started four games with his team as the moneyline favorite and won each of them.
  • Peterson’s team has won six of his seven starts this season.
  • In games Peterson has started this season, the teams are 5-1-1 at hitting the over.

Nationals’ Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore

  • The 25-year-old has amassed an ERA of 4.02, with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 18 games this season. Opposing hitters have a .275 batting average against him.
  • The Nationals are 4-7 in Gore’s 11 starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Gore’s team has compiled an 8-10 record in his 18 starts.
  • Gore’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in nine of 18 games.

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Mets’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 46-45
Home 23-25
Road 23-20
One-Run Games 17-10
Scoring 5+ Runs 32-14

Nationals’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 42-51
Home 20-24
Road 22-27
One-Run Games 8-13
Scoring 5+ Runs 28-13

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