The Mets and Astros are playing their first series together since 2017, when the eventual World Series champions swept New York days after Hurricane Harvey and the blockbuster acquisition of Justin Verlander. The Astros remain a dominant force in the AL five years later, while the Mets have risen to the best record in the NL, making this an interleague matchup between a pair of legitimate title hopefuls. The Astros are +650 to win the World Series, while the Mets trail close behind at +700.
Young starter Luis Garcia will take the mound for Houston, while veteran arm Carlos Carrasco has the ball for the Mets. Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Wednesday night’s matchup.
New York Mets vs. Houston Astros Betting Odds
The Astros enter at -134 on the money line, with the Mets slight underdogs at +114. While the Mets of the last few years – or decades – often found unique ways to lose, these Mets find new ways to win. New York has won its last three series’ and has continued to cruise along without aces Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. As both work toward a return, the pitching has stayed steady – due in part to Carlos Carrasco.
On the other end, no AL hitter has been hotter than Houston’s Yordan Alvarez over the last month. With Alvarez back in the lineup after missing a game with a hand injury and the Astros playing at home, this could be a serious test of the Mets’ strength.
New York Mets Starting Lineup
CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
DH J. McNeil L
3B E. Escobar S
LF M. Canha R
2B L. Guillorme L
C T. Nido R
New York Mets Vs. Luis Garcia
Luis Garcia has been a mixed bag lately for the Astros, but he’s been about as advertised this season after finishing second in the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year race. Garcia has a 3.41 ERA over 12 starts (66 IP). He’s notably seen his FIP jump from 3.63 to 4.26, but his WHIP has dropped from 1.18 to 1.03. The elevated FIP indicates some tougher days might be ahead for Garcia, and the Mets are precisely the team that can give young pitchers trouble. New York leads the National League with 5.04 runs/game, trailing only the Yankees’ 5.13 runs/game on baseball’s leaderboard.
The Mets come into Houston looking to jolt their offense after a tough week. Not much of a power-heavy team outside of Pete Alonso, the offense has only 5 home runs in its last 7 games. It was an especially tough week for Eduardo Escobar, who went just 1-for-16 at the plate and spent some time in the hospital due to dizziness. With Escobar back and the Mets playing in a home run-friendly Minute Maid Park, the balls might soon start flying again.
Houston Astros Starting Lineup
2B J. Altuve R
LF M. Brantley L
3B A. Bregman R
DH Y. Alvarez L
RF K. Tucker L
1B Y. Gurriel R
SS A. Diaz R
CF J. Siri R
C M. Maldonado R
Houston Astros Vs. Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco has bounced back from a difficult, injury-hampered 2021 season with a 3.96 ERA through 13 starts (75 IP) this season. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been available for the Mets. With Scherzer and deGrom out, that’s all New York needs right now. Carrasco has a promising 3.01 FIP this season, and he’s struck out at least seven batters in each of his last three starts.
Carrasco’s last two starts do spark some concern. He allowed 5 earned runs on 9 hits against the Angels on June 11, giving up 8 more hits to the Marlins last week. Carrasco is still missing bats, as indicated by the strikeout totals, but hitters have capitalized on his mistakes lately. Carrasco probably can’t afford to give up solid contact to a loaded Astros offense in a hitter-friendly park.
Yordan Alvarez is back for Houston after a brief injury scare over the weekend, and his presence in the lineup could reignite an Astros offense that went cold at times on Saturday and Sunday against the White Sox. Rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena remains out after going on the IL with a thumb injury last week. Aledmys Diaz has been filling in while Pena recovers but was on a 2-for-18 stretch by the end of the White Sox series.
Mets Vs. Astros Picks & Prediction
My pick: Under 8.5 runs (-105 on FanDuel)
This would normally be pegged as a high-scoring matchup, but hitters often come out sluggish in a day game that follows a night game. First pitch is set for 1:10 PM local time, so it would be no surprise if it took some time for the bats to get going with two solid pitchers on the mound. If there’s going to be any slugfest in this series, it may be when Trevor Williams and Jose Urquidy take the mound on Tuesday night – with the Astros well-rested after an off day. When all is said and done, though, this is an Astros offense that might be too talented for the Mets to keep in check all day, making Houston the better bet.