The Mets and Yankees conclude their second and final Subway Series of 2023 Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are the betting favorites at -155 on the moneyline, while the Mets’ odds are at +135. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs with equal -110 odds on each side. The prediction here is that the Yankees win and the over hits.
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction
Starting pitchers: LHP José Quintana (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. LHP Carlos Rodón (0-3, 7.36 ERA)
It’s a southpaw showdown in the Bronx.
Both pitchers in tonight’s matchup recently made their season – and team – debuts. Carlos Rodón made his Yankees debut on July 7 after going on the IL during spring training with a left elbow strain and back tightness. He signed a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees this offseason after back-to-back seasons in which he made the All-Star team and finished in the top six in Cy Young voting.
José Quintana, meanwhile, last pitched in Game 1 of the 2022 NL Division Championship Series against the Phillies as a member of the Cardinals. He signed a two-year, $26 million contract with the Mets this offseason to be their 4th starter, but suffered a stress fracture in his left rib cage during spring training. He made his debut on July 20 against the White Sox and threw 77 pitches (53 strikes) and allowed 2 earned runs over five innings.
Rodón should have a clear edge in the pitching matchup, but he has struggled so far in his short stint in the Yankee pinstripes. He struggled with his command in his last outing against the Angels, giving up five walks, which contributed to allowing 6 runs over 4-1/3 innings. He has taken the “L” in all three of his starts so far as a Yankee.
Despite his poor start to the season, Rodón still inspires more confidence than Quintana at this point in their respective seasons and careers. The Yankees also have a clear edge against left-handed pitching.
The Bronx Bombers have a solid 105 wRC+ against lefties this season, good for 14th in the league, while the Mets sit at 94 (23rd). That contrast has been even more stark over the last 30 days, where the Yankees have mashed a mark of 124 (4th) while the Mets have posted a paltry 76 (26th).
Given the pitching matchup, those hitting splits make the Yankees a solid bet at -155 moneyline odds. If you want to tail the Yankees pick, it could also make sense to lay the -1.5 spread to get the +130 odds rather than -155, but the moneyline is obviously the safer pick.
Without having much confidence in either starting pitcher right now, I am also betting the over on a line of 8.5 runs. If Rodón returns to form and shuts down the Mets, which he is more than capable of doing, then the over pick won’t be looking very good. But right now that seems like a pretty big if.
Mets vs. Yankees Prediction: Yankees moneyline (-155), over 8.5 runs (-110)
Mets vs. Yankees Odds
The Yankees opened as home favorites with -150 odds on the moneyline, while the Mets’ moneyline odds opened at +130. As of this writing, those odds have moved slightly to -155 and +135, respectively.
The Yankees are laying -1.5 runs on the spread at +130 odds, while the Mets are getting +1.5 at -150.
The total in this game is set at 8.5 runs, with identical -110 odds on the over and on the under.
Mets vs. Yankees Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Mets vs. Yankees.
José Quintana vs (almost) all righties
José Quintana being left-handed is one of the main reasons for my Yankees moneyline pick in my Yankees vs. Mets prediction. As noted above, the Yankees have been much better against lefties than they have been against righties this season.
The Yankees’ lineup is dominated by right-handed hitters. Among their everyday players, only Anthony Rizzo and Jake Bauers hit from the left side, and Bauers is likely to be pinch hitting tonight in favor of righty Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the starting lineup.
If Rodón handles the Mets well, then the Yankees can win a low-scoring game, but their chances will be much better if they can score a few early runs against Quintana. Not to mention the chances of the over hitting are very low if Quintana shuts them down.
The Yankees should maintain the edge in pitching even once the starters are out of the game. Their bullpen leads the majors in ERA at 3.21 and they are 2nd in batting average against at .221. The Mets, on the other hand, have struggled to replace closer Edwin Diaz and have posted a 4.20 bullpen ERA (20th).
Both clubs’ numbers are less impressive in terms of advanced metrics, where the Yankees’ relief staff is 13th in FIP at 4.01 while the Mets are 28th with a 4.62 FIP. New York’s AL club still has a clear edge from that perspective.
The Yankees’ superior bullpen should offer that much more confidence in their moneyline pick.
Mets vs. Yankees Starting Lineups (Projected)
Mets Starting Lineup
CF Brandon Nimmo (L)
LF Tommy Pham (R)
SS Francisco Lindor (S)
1B Pete Alonso (R)
2B Jeff McNeil (L)
C Francisco Alvarez (R)
DH Daniel Vogelbach (L)
3B Brett Baty (L)
RF Mark Canha (R)
Yankees Starting Lineup
2B Gleyber Torres (R)
RF Giancarlo Stanton (R)
1B Anthony Rizzo (L)
DH DJ LeMahieu (R)
CF Harrison Bader (R)
LF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)
SS Anthony Volpe (R)
3B Oswald Peraza (R)
C Kyle Higashioka (R)