Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (09/29/22): Betting Odds, Preview, and Prediction

The 3-0 Miami Dolphins are set to face off against the 1-2 Cincinnati Bengals at 8:15pm ET on Thursday night. Coming off of a dramatic 22-19 victory over the Buffalo Bills, the Miami Dolphins will look to keep their perfect record intact against a high-powered Bengals’ offense. Starting off 0-2, the Bengals got their first win of the new season with a 27-12 beatdown of the lowly New York Jets last week but face their best competition yet in the Miami Dolphins. Let’s take a look at the odds, prediction, and key matchup to find the best bet for this game. 

Miami Dolphins Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds

The Miami Dolphins are +3 underdogs against the -3 favorite Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are -180 moneyline favorites to the Dolphins +160 line. The over/under for the game is set at 47. 

Miami Dolphins Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Prediction

The Miami Dolphins have shocked the NFL world so-far this season but face another tough test against the Cincinnati Bengals this Thursday. After the Bengals turned the league on its head with a Super Bowl-berth last season, many expected the former AFC champs to start where they left off, but that hasn’t been the case. While Burrow and his weapons have remained mostly consistent, the Bengals’ offensive line play has been a major issue for the team, giving up 15 sacks in just three games. Despite Miami’s defense only recording 6 sacks so far, defensive coordinator Josh Boyer’s unit blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL and has edged out great offenses and quarterbacks so far. Although the continued absence of corner Byron Jones will be felt by Miami’s defense with JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins on the opposing side, Miami’s edge rushers should be able to disrupt Burrow frequently. Being that Miami is the toughest team the Bengals have faced so far, the team can’t afford to risk a slow-start as their defense isn’t good enough to bail them out against Miami’s high-scoring offense. 

Coming off of two emotional victories on a short, travel week though, Miami will need to come out extra motivated on Thursday night, especially with injuries to anchor LT Terron Armstead and QB Tua Tagovailoa. Armstead, who played through a toe injury against the Bills, is a name to keep an eye on as he is by far and away the Dolphins’ best lineman. Tua has been incredible this season but after getting banged up against the Bills, he’s questionable to play with an ankle injury. If Tua plays, head coach Mike McDaniel would be wise to set up a game plan that gets Tua away from Bengals stud DE Trey Hendrickson, who had a great week against the Jets last Sunday. To Tua’s credit, he has found better success navigating the pocket this season, even against great defensive lines, and having some of the fastest wideouts in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle certainly helps with that. The Bengals may have a stingy defensive front but their ‘middle of the pack’ secondary shouldn’t be a major concern for the ‘Legion of Zoom,’ especially when Tyreek Hill is already calling out Bengals’ corner Eli Apple. 

Although Miami has many statistical advantages in this one, this is still the NFL where the short-week is one of a team’s biggest challenges. I’ve seen too much good football from the Dolphins however, to not think they are an excellent underdog betting pick this week. With Burrow’s line having just one decent game of three so-far, I expect Miami’s underrated defensive front – led by Melvin Ingram, Christian Wilkins, and Jalean Phillips – to create enough pressure and force turnovers that’ll eventually propel the Dolphins to a fourth straight victory. 
Prediction: Dolphins win and cover

Betting Trends

• Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
• Bengals are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

Key Injuries

Miami Dolphins Injuries:

-QB T. Tagovailoa (Questionable)

-CB Byron Jones (OUT)

-LT Terron Armstead (Questionable)

-RG Robert Hunt  (Questionable)

-CB Xavien Howard (Questionable)

-WR Jaylen Waddle (Questionable)

Cincinnati Bengals Injuries:

-OT La’el Collins  (Questionable)

-LB Germaine Pratt (OUT)

-TE Hayden Hurst (Questionable)

-WR Tee Higgins (Questionable)

Key Matchup

Check out my favorite key matchup to keep an eye on in this one.

Dolphins’ Secondary vs Bengals’ Receivers

Lacking Byron Jones, there were big concerns about the Dolphins’ secondary coming into the season. Those concerns seem all but gone now though, with CB Xavien Howard and S Jevon Holland leading a group that just held the Bills’ offense to just 19 points despite 90 offensive plays and 40:40 minutes of total possession time. The secret to the Dolphins’ secondary success: others stepping up to fill the void left by Jones, specifically undrafted corner Kader Kohou. While stopping Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgings will be a tough task, the team did just hold Stefon Diggs to his worst performance of the season. Because of the short week and the amount of time the Dolphins’ defense played on Sunday, I’ll give the Bengals’ receivers core – who just put up 275 yards – the edge, but expect this to be a nearly even battle. 

Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Chase Edmunds
RB2: Raheem Mostert
LWR: Tyreek Hill
RWR: Jaylen Waddle
SWR: Cedrick Wilson
TE1: Mike Gesicki

Bengals Depth Chart

QB: Joe Burrow
RB1: Joe Mixon
RB2: Samaje Perine
LWR: Ja’Marr Chase
RWR: Tee Higgins
SWR: Tyler Boyd
TE1: Hayden Hurt