Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Player Props & Picks (12/31/23)

Get Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup

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Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks

The AFC’s No. 1 seed is up for grabs when the Miami Dolphins (11-4) visit the Baltimore Ravens (12-3) on Sunday (12/31/23) at 1 p.m. EST. With a big performance in this game, players like Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill could become locked-in NFL MVP winners (Jackson) or at least betting favorites.

This article analyzes the betting odds for player prop bets in this game and recommends the best Dolphins vs. Ravens player prop bets.

Raheem Mostert over 45.5 rushing yards (-101 at Caesars)

As we discussed in our matchup preview, we expect the Dolphins to commit to their running game in this matchup. With Jaylen Waddle missing this game and the Ravens being dominant against the pass, the rushing attack is Miami’s biggest advantage on offense.

To put some numbers behind the Ravens’ passing vs. rushing defense, over their last five games (since Week 11), they are fifth in EPA and eighth in success rate against the pass but just 31st in EPA and 29th in success rate against the run. Over that span they are allowing the 14th-highest explosive run rate (10+ yards), and Mostert is sixth in the league in explosive run rate.

The Ravens have allowed at least 49 rushing yards to their opponent’s leading rusher in 10 of their 15 games this season, and they have allowed at least 68 yards in eight of those games. Mostert has gone over this prop line of 45.5 yards in six of his last eight games and in 10 of his 15 games overall this season.

It’s worth noting that Mostert is officially listed as questionable as of this writing, but it sounds like he should have no issues playing. He has been tending to knee and ankle injuries all season and has frequently carried questionable designations into games before getting his normal workload.

Mostert will be splitting the backfield touches with DeVon Achane in this game, but that has not impacted his production so far this season. Achane does not carry any injury designation into this game, but oddsmakers have prop lines available for Mostert and not for Achane.

That should provide some additional confidence that Mostert is expected to be the guy once again in this backfield, in a game in which Miami will want to run the ball and should be able to find success doing so. That said, we may also be interested in Achane’s prop lines once they are available, as both backs should be heavily involved in this game.

Either way, this prop bet is available at close to even money and is one of the best player prop bets available in this game.

Tyreek Hill over 7.5 receptions (+105 at BetMGM)

While the matchup against the Ravens’ defense steered us toward Miami’s running backs for our favorite player prop bet in this game, it’s also not scaring us away from getting some action on Tyreek Hill. His receiving yards prop line is at 92.5 yards as of this writing, which is a number he could certainly hit, even against this defense. He has gone over that number in nine of his 14 games this season, including four of his last five.

However, we prefer to target Hill’s receptions in this game (pun intended!) as the better prop bet for the cheetah. One of the main reasons for this is the odds, as this bet is available in plus territory at +105. But we also have much more confidence in Hill’s role and volume in this game than we do in his overall success against this defense. With Waddle out, Hill will be peppered with targets in this game, and should rack up the receptions even if the Ravens manage to keep him mostly bottled up.

Hill has gone over this number and over his receptions prop line in nine of his 14 games this season, including six of his last eight games. While the Ravens have been excellent against the pass, wide receivers have been able to find some success against them from a betting perspective. The opposing team’s leading WR has gone over their receptions prop in nine of their last 10 games.

The Dolphins may focus on the run game, but when they throw they’re going to throw it to Tyreek Hill, and betting on that volume is a sound move.

Isaiah Likely over 40.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

Let’s look to the Ravens’ offense for our final pick in this game. Zay Flowers is looking like a game-time decision this week, so the Ravens could be missing their team leader in targets, receptions and receiving yards. That production will need to go somewhere, and their young tight end is one of the most Likely candidates (pun intended again).

In four games as the starter after Mark Andrews went down, Likely has had a 16.4% target share and has gained a very solid 1.95 yards per route run. He has gone over his receiving yards prop line in all four games, and he has over 50 receiving yards in three straight games. He will only continue getting better as he gains experience and develops more chemistry with Lamar Jackson.

The Dolphins’ defense can be vulnerable against tight ends. They have allowed the 10th-most receptions and the 17th-most receiving yards to the position this season. With two stellar cornerbacks in Jaylen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, opposing offenses are more likely to target the tight end, which will benefit Likely.

Miami has allowed an opposing tight end to go over their receiving yards prop in seven of their last nine games, and they have allowed over 40 receiving yards to a tight end in two of their last three games. We like the chances that Likely continues that trend.

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Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.

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