Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/17/22)

The 8-5 Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo, New York to face off against the AFC East leading 10-3 Buffalo Bills on Saturday in a game that is expected to see freezing temperatures and snowfall hit Highmark stadium. Because the Dolphins defeated the Bills in Miami earlier this season, a Buffalo win would all but hand them the division title for a second year in a row. For Miami, a third straight loss would damper their playoff hopes and after two dismal performances, the team should be hungry to prove that they belong. With that, let’s look at the odds, preview, prediction, injuries, key matchup, and depth charts for this rivalry game.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

The Miami Dolphins looked lost, uncomfortable, confused, and disoriented in their 23-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday night. While the Dolphins offense looked lackluster in their loss to the 49ers two weeks ago, QB Tua Tagovailoa’s usual seamless connection to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the rest of the offense looked severed against the Chargers. To make matters worse, the Dolphins’ decision to use heaters in the domed SoFi stadium doesn’t necessarily bode well for their upcoming trip to snowy-weathered Buffalo. Hopefully, the Dolphins offense and defense can hit the reset button after their two worst performances of the year. 

In Buffalo’s 20-12 victory over the New York Jets, the biggest weakness to the Bills could be seen in the 3 sacks of QB Josh Allen. Making Allen look human, the Jets’ excellent defensive line wreaked havoc in the first half of last week’s game, holding the Bills to just 7 points. When the snow started to fall though, Jets’ QB Mike White could do little to jump-start the Jets’ offense and the Bills defense ultimately showed up, holding White to a 56.2 QBR and the Jets run game to just 76 yards on 22 attempts. With frigid conditions expected for Saturday night, the Bills will be adequately adjusted given that their environment will likely be the same as it was against the Jets. 

-7.5 is a lot of points considering this is a divisional game. While the Dolphins’ last two performances have been abysmal, I wouldn’t expect the team to come out as flat as it was last week. That being said, the Bills are a better football team, are playing better football right now, and are used to the cold weather. Playing in 80 degree heat nearly every week, the Dolphins haven’t played well on the road and face an up-hill battle on the heels of a three week road trip. The odds are stacked against Miami in this one and if the defensive line cannot bother Josh Allen then this game could get out of hand quickly. 

Prediction: Bills -7

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

The Miami Dolphins are +7.5 point underdogs against the -7.5 favorite San Francisco 49ers. The Dolphins are +260 on the money-line, while the Bills reside at -350. The over/under is set at 42 points. 

Betting Trends

–Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December

–Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Key Injuries

Dolphins:

-CB E. Rowe (Q)

-CB B. Jones (O)

-LT T. Armstead (P)

-RB J .Wilson (Q)

Bills:

-G R. Bates (O)

-DT J. Phillips (O)

-WR. S Diggs (P)

Key Matchup

Tua Tagovailoa versus Bills’ Secondary

Make no mistake: this is a put up or shut game from Tagovailoa in his quest to prove he is a franchise quarterback. With the dominos stacked against him, Tagovailoa faces one of the toughest tasks of the season in re-generating the connection between his receivers as they face opposing safeties Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyner. After the tenacious secondary duo locked down the Jets’ talented receiving core last week, Tua faces another great challenge. Like he has done before though, expect Tua to rise to the occasion and put up his best numbers of the road trip. Unfortunately, it may still not be enough for Miami to overcome this healthy Bills team.

Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Jeff Wilson
RB2: Raheem Mostert
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Tyreek Hill
SWR: Trent Sherfield
TE1: Mike Gesicki

Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Devin Singletary
RB2: Nyheim Hines
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Isaiah Mckenize
SWR: Gabe Davis
TE: Dawson Knox