Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Wild Card Preview (1/15/23): Betting Odds, Prediction, Depth Chart

Eyes will be on the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills game came Sunday morning and while some fans were expecting a third great game in this rivalry season this season, the absence of Dolphins’ quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has seemingly dashed any and all hope of the Dolphins winning this game. Tua’s inability to escape concussion protocol has led Miami to activate third stringer Skylar Thompson, who played last week against the Jets, against a Buffalo team playing on the side of destiny. With a gigantic spread, let’s check out the odds, preview, prediction, injuries, key matchup, and depth charts to see if their are any worthwhile bets for this AFC East divisional matchup. 

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Opening as -10 point favorites, the Buffalo Bills’ number quickly increased to -13 with the news of Tua’s absence. With the Dolphins at +13 to +13.5 depending on sportsbooks, the over/under is more level set at 43.5 at -110 odds for each side. 

Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills Preview & Prediction

There is little to be confident about on the Miami Dolphins’ side and a lot to be confident about on the Buffalo Bills side. With the return of Damar Hamlin back at the Bills’ facility, the Buffalo Bills seem more and more like a team of destiny, especially after their emphatic 35-23 win over the Patriots’ last week. Now, facing third-stringer Skylar Thompson, the Bills’ defense must be feeling confident especially after neutralizing Mac Jones, who is objectively a far better quarterback than Thomspon. With the Dolphins’ losing to the Patriots 23-21 two weeks ago and shuffling through both Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater in that game, the offense must be feeling weary of itself traveling back up to Buffalo, New York. 

The 45th ranked QB and XYZ, Skylar Thompson has his work cut out for him this week. Besides the frigid weather, Thompson faces a defense that boasts a top secondary with Jordan Poyer and Tre’davious White lurking in the back field. Giving up 17.9 points per game, the Bills’ defense is a step up from the New York Jets. For context, the Dolphins just beat the Jets 11-6 and Thompson posted a dismal 14.8 QBR rating according to ESPN. That leave little room for error on Miami’s offense this week and with lead back Raheem Mostert questionable with a broken thumb, things are just not going Miami’s way at the moment. 

On the Bills’ side there is relatively little to be concerned about. With the Dolphins’ offense seemingly neutralized by its own anemic playing under Thomspon, the Bills need to avoid turnovers and play to their style of pounding the rock with Singletary, Hines, and Cook and airing it out with MVP candidate Josh Allen under center. While Allen threw a goal-line interception last week, don’t count on the All Pro quarterback to repeat his mistakes as the Bills look to capture their first Super Bowl in history. 

Unfortunately for Miami fans, this game has Bills all over it and their spread seems like a good choice albeit its high point nature. The Dolphins must have many questions after playing in their second playoff game in the last decade with a back-up QB under center. That being said, expect the Bills to capitalize on a much lesser opponent. 

Pick: Bills -13.5

Betting Trends

  • Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
  • Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January.

Key Injuries


-CB E. Rowe (Q)

-CB B. Jones (O)

-LT T. Armstead (Q)

-RB J .Wilson (Q)

-QB T. Tagovailoa (O)

-RB R. Mostert (Q)


Key Matchup

Miami’s Secondary vs Bills’ Offense

Holding the Jets to just 6 points last week, the Dolphins’ defense bailed out their offense for the entire game. Facing a much tougher opponent in Josh Allen and co. this week, the Dolphins’ defense will have to play perfect this week to keep this game competitive. With the Dolphins’ secondary decimated by injuries and with poor play from once-star cornerback Xavien Howard, cornerbacks Kader Kohou and the aforementioned Howard are going to have to contain Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in a nearly impossible task. The Bills have the big advantage here this week. 

Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Skylar Thompson
RB1: Raheem Mostert
RB2: Jeff Wilson
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Tyreek Hill
SWR: Cedrick Wilson
TE1: Mike Gesicki

Bills Depth Chart

QB: Josh Allen
RB1: Devin Singletary
RB2: James Cook
LWR: Stefon Diggs
RWR: Gabriel Davis
SWR: Isaiah Mckenzie
TE1: Dawson Knox

Carson Marsh graduated from the University of Southern California with a Bachelor's Degree in Communication with special focus on Sports Media from the Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism, Carson has worked in journalism as a field reporter for, the longest-running publication exclusively dedicated to USC football and also worked in the social media department with the Las Vegas Raiders.

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