Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Preview (12/13/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)

The cruising Chiefs (11-1) travel south to play the red-hot Miami Dolphins (8-4) that have won 7 of their last 8 games. Each team is playing December football that has playoff implications. The Chiefs look to capture a first round bye over the 11-1 Steelers. The Dolphins, meanwhile, look to earn earn their first playoff berth since 2016 and just their second since 2009. A tough schedule ahead though could spell trouble as Miami looks to capture a wildcard ticket. This game will mean much more to them than the visiting Chiefs.

For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins Matchup Page.

TV Schedule

Date: December 13th, 2020
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium – Miami-Gardens, Florida
TV Coverage: CBS

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Live Stream

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Injuries:

*Indicates Expected Week 14 Return
Miami Dolphins:
IR list: Vince Biegal (achilles), Davon Godchaux (biceps), Matt Breida (covid), Preston Williams (foot), Jamal Perry (covid). Out: Ereck Flowers (ankle), Salvom Ahmed (shoulder). Questionable: Elandon Roberts (chest), Malcolm Perry (chest), Xavien Howard (shoulder), Kavon Fraizer (shoulder), Jakeem Grant (back), Andrew Van Ginkel (wrist), Adam Shaheen (foot), Kyle Van Noy (hip), Solomon Kindley (foot), Tua Tagovailoa (thumb).

Kansas City Chiefs:
IR list: Alex Brown (knee), Kelechi Osemele (knee), Mitchell Shwartz* (back), Taco Charlton (lower leg), Bryon Pringle* (ankle), Dorian O’Daniel (ankle). Questionable: Damien Wilson (knee).

Miami Dolphins Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa returned in fashion last week, throwing a career high in passing yards with 296, a touchdown, and kept his interception career total to zero. In my view, it was Tua’s best game of his short 6 game career. The last time the Hawaii native saw action was in week 11 at Denver, when a poor performance by the rookie made Brian Flores decide to bench him for veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Tua’s comeback game was more than enough to solidify his place as the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. He is their QB1 entering the Dolphin’s week 14 matchup against Kansas City.

But barring a miracle, the young quarterback will not win offensive rookie of the year. He averages a measly 150 passing yards per game, and has thrown just 7 touchdowns. He’s not a superstar, at least not yet. But he’s a safe and smart quarterback. Through 134 attempts, he has not yet thrown an interception. He needs just 43 more attempts without a pick to tie Dak Prescott for the all time record of passes to start a career without an interception. I don’t put it past the rookie to do it. His low completion percentage of 63.2, is more of an indicator that Tua knows when to throw the ball away than a sign he’s simply inaccurate. All signs point to him having a safe but efficient game against the Chiefs, who rank 13th against the pass with 225.8 yards allowed per game.

Tua will be throwing to a trio of his favorite receivers. DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and Jakeem Grant all lead the team in yardage for the season, in the given respective order. Parker and Gesicki are set to lead the league in receiving for a second straight year, but it has been the rise of Jakeem Grant that is somewhat more unexpected. The 5th year receiver out of Texas Tech has already surpassed his career best in yardage for a season. Since being drafted by the Dolphins in sixth round 5 years ago, Grant has played a very minimal role on the team. Essentially being only used as a returner, he didn’t earn much playing time on the actual offense. Until this year, where he has earned at least 1 reception in every game of the season. Look for Tua to get him the ball in this matchup against Kansas City.

Miami’s run game has not been their strong suit. Their 96.5 rushing yards per game ranks 26th in the league. Even more revealingly, no team has a worse yards per attempt average than the Dolphin’s 3.7. They simply haven’t been able to run the football. But that might change going forward with the return of Myles Gaskin. The 23 year old returned from a knee injury last week and rushed for 90 yards off 21 attempts against the Bengals. It was just his 8th game in an injury-heavy season. But Gaskin’s 60 rushing yards per game ranks 20th in the league. When healthy, he’s a decent back. Against a Kansas City rushing defense that ranks 27th in the league (allows 132.4 ground yards per game), he may have a very strong performance.

Between a decent passing attack, and an historically weak rushing game, Miami’s offensive numbers are not much to brag about. They travel 319.8 yards (28th) and score 25.2 points (16th) per game. They convert just 38.36% of third downs (25th) and score touchdowns on just 58.7% of RedZone trips (19th). Maybe worst of all, they average just 2.3 offensive touchdowns per game, 23rd in the league. They don’t travel very far with the football, can’t convert third downs very often, and find the endzone rarely. There is clear room for improvement as the Dolphins enter the final stretch of the regular season.

Miami’s defense is a strong point of this team. While they hold teams to 355.2 yards (16th), they also rank 2nd in the league by conceding just 17.7 points per game. The strength of this defense is on a very strong passing defense. While they may allow 232.8 yards through the air (15th) per game, they hold opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of just 83.1, 3rd lowest in the league. Cornerback Xavien Howard leads the league in interceptions with 8 on the year. He has helped Miami’s defense cause the 3rd most turnovers in the league with 21 on the season. Even Mahomes might find this secondary difficult to break down.

But there’s another very specific and somewhat peculiar reason Miami concedes so few points. Opposing field goal percentage is a stat very glossed over by most people when analyzing teams. But when discussing the Dolphins, it shouldn’t be. Kickers facing Miami convert on just 57.14% of field goal attempts, by far the lowest mark in the league. But it’s even more outlandish than that. If the awful kicking were to continue, it’d be the worst kicking against any one team in over 17 years. In an increasingly accurate league kicking, Miami has found a way to make kickers miss. Even more strikingly, they’ve managed to hold kickers to just such a low field goal percentage without a single block on the season. It will be very interesting to see how Chief’s kicker, Harrison Butker, does on Sunday. His FG percentage of 91.7% ranks 11th in the league. A miss by him may all but prove that there is a curse among opposing kickers facing Miami for reasons that remain unclear.

The rushing defense has been not-so impressive as compared to the secondary. They allow 122.4 ground yards per game, 20th in the league. It’s not an excess of attempts either. Miami allows 7th most yards per rush attempt in the league, with 4.6 yards per carry. Kansas City is far from a run heavy offense, (25 attempts per game, 22nd), but they may give Clyde Edwards-Helaire more carries to take advantage of this weak point in Miami.

To summarize the 2020 Dolphins, they are a football team that has surprised the NFL community this year. Preseason odds for total wins was an over/under was just 6. Through 13 weeks, they sit in playoff position with an 8-4 record. But they have still not convinced us they are legitimate. With a record of 9-3 against the spread, they are clearly an underrated team even now. A rookie quarterback, talented but lesser known receivers, and a very underappreciated defense, they may surprise fans this weekend.

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Matt Breida
RB2: Jordan Howard
WR1: DeVante Parker
WR2: Preston Williams
WR3: Jakeem Grant
TE: Mike Gesicki

Kansas City Chiefs Analysis

The Kansas City Chiefs are having yet another winning season under the arm of Patrick Mahomes. With a win percentage of 81.2 percent, Mahomes has the best win/loss record of any quarterback of all time with at least 30 starts. He looks to bring the Chiefs back to the Super Bowl after helping his team earn an 11-1 record.

The success of Mahomes is built on a strong arm, mobility outside of the pocket, and ability to read defenses. His stats back up his praise. He has thrown a league leading 3815 yards (1st), alongside 31 touchdowns (3rd), and just 2 interceptions (40th). He also has a QB rating of 113.8, which trails just Aaron Rodgers (118.5). By any metric, Mahomes is ridiculously good at football. It’s worth noting that last week Mahomes picked apart the Broncos defense for over 300 yards, a passing touchdown, and no turnovers. The Texan native will be a problem for the Dolphins this weekend, whose passing defense ranks 15th (allows 232.8 yards per game).

But it’s also the receiver core of the Chiefs that makes this team Super Bowl caliber. A trio of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman are among the fastest wide receiver groups in the league. They alone would be a problem for opposing defenses. Combine that with the best tight end in the league, Travis Kelce, and you found yourself a top 3 offense for the foreseeable future. Last week Kelce caught 8 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. The threat of these talented players should keep the Dolphins’ secondary up at night watching tape.

The ground game of Kansas City is far less successful than their air attack. With just 113.2 rushing yards per game, they rank 16th in the league. But the lackluster rushing is not for a lack of talent. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire bursted into his NFL debut with 138 yards from 25 attempts in week 1. In the only other game all season he has seen as many attempts, he rushed for over 160 yards. In-fact his 4.6 yards per attempt ranks 22nd in the league, above names such as James Robinson, David Montgomery, and Josh Jacobs. Helaire missed last game because of an illness, but is fully on track to play this week. It’d only be smart to give him another workhorse game as Miami ranks 20th in the league against the run with 122.4 yards allowed on the ground per game.

The combination of all these talented players has kept Kansas City a top offense in the league. They score 30.8 points (2nd) and travel a league leading 427.6 yards per game. They excel in other stats like third down conversion rate by earning a first down in 48.95% (2nd) of their tries. They shockingly do struggle in the RedZone, however. Scoring a touchdown on just 57.45% of trips, they rank 22nd in the league. They will be facing a top 10 RedZone defense in the Dolphins, who allow a touchdown score in just 58.33% of visits. That battle near the goal line will be very interesting to watch.

Kansas City’s defense is similarly fairly strong. They allow 358.2 yards (17th) but 21.2 points (6th) per game. I think the discrepancy in points and yards can be attributed to average starting field position for their opponent per drive. On average, opponents of Kansas City start their drive on their own 25.43 yard line. That starting field position is the third worst (or farthest back) for opposing offenses against any one team. In short, Kansas City simply forces opponents to travel farther. So they concede some yardage, but it doesn’t often results in many points. In-fact, them allowing just 2.06 points per drive ranks 10th in the league.

Their defensive success can largely be attributed to a very strong secondary. A roster of Tyrann Mathieu, Daniel Sorenson, and L’Jarius Sneed among others have contributed to the Chief’s 14 interceptions this year (3rd). They may allow 225.8 passing yards per game (13th), but allow a passer rating of just 84.6, 5th best in the league. If any squad were to force Tua’s first interception of the season, it’d be this group of talented players.

The front seven has plenty of talent as well. Defensive tackle Chris Jones’ team-leading 5.5 sacks this year have kept opposing quarterbacks on their toes. There’s also defensive end Frank Clark, whose leads the team in his own right with 6 tackles for a loss. But for all their efforts, it has not converted into results against opposing rushers. Allowing 132.4 rushing yards per game, Kansas City ranks 27th in the league. They face Miami in time for Myles Gaskin’s second game back from injury. He just rushed for 90 against Cincinnati. The Dolphin running back has a strong opportunity to win the ground battle at home.

But the Dolphins as a team will find difficulties winning the battle overall. Kansas City is an offensive powerhouse with an MVP quarterback, very fast receiving core, a talented young running back, and a defense that bends but doesn’t break. Any team facing them will struggle, and Miami is no exception.

Kansas City Chiefs Depth Chart

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB1: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB2: Darwin Thompson
WR1: Tyreek Hill
WR2: Sammy Watkins
WR3: Mecole Hardman
TE: Travis Kelce

Betting Corner: Kansas Chiefs -7.5

Spread: -7.5 Chiefs
Moneyline: -340 Chiefs, +280 Dolphins
Over/Under: 49.5

Prediction

Spread: +7.5 Dolphins
Moneyline: +280 Dolphins
Over/Under: Over

I think there is a consensus among sports bettors to never go against the Chiefs, but I strongly don’t subscribe to it. The Chiefs are a good team that win games, but their success drowns betters to place money on over-exaggerated odds. With a sober mind, it is clear that the Chiefs are not as good as Vegas makes their spreads. Kansas City is just 6-6 against the spread. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are a league leading 9-3. In addition, Kansas City thrives from earning interceptions from opposing quarterbacks, but Tua has exactly 0 in his career. The Chief’s weak rushing defense is worrisome considering Myles Gaskin’s is back in the lineup. Kansas also struggles in the RedZone, an area the Dolphin’s defense thrives. There are too many weighing factors on this game that prevent me from believing this game will be a blowout. Bet on the Dolphins for the spread, and consider betting the moneyline. If I had to pick my big upset of the week, it would be Miami at home.

I am also predicting another high scoring game. It goes without saying the Chiefs will put up points, but I think the Dolphins are in for one of their better offensive games of the year. On the legs of Gaskin, they will travel down the field and have plenty of opportunities to score with the Chief’s bendable defense. And when stopped, they can rely on kicker Jason Meyers who is a perfect 8 for 8 on 50+ yard attempts. Bet the over in this one.

Daily Fantasy Love/Hate

Love: Clyde Edwards-Heliare
In all likelihood, there will be several other players on the Chiefs that will score more fantasy points. But this is a daily fantasy love, not overall fantasy. In other words, I picked Helaire with value in mind. I think he will have another breakout game after struggling to find much production this season. He has shown bursts of talent, but doesn’t receive enough volume to be a top 10 fantasy play. At least not yet. But against a bad Miami rushing defense I think that changes. Consider Helaire as your fantasy play this weekend.

Hate: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua is a more talented quarterback than his stat sheets read. He places the ball accurately, has a strong arm, and knows when a play is dead. His 0 interceptions are a testament to both his ability and strong knowledge of the game. But he only has 13 fantasy points per game in his short career. Look for another value start at quarterback.