Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (1/13/23)

Get Chiefs vs. Dolphins first touchdown best bets for their (1/13/24) matchup.

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The Chiefs host the Dolphins in what could be an all-time cold wild card playoff game on Saturday. Let’s take a look at Dolphins vs. Chiefs first touchdown odds, with an eye toward some value in the passing game as the running games soak up the attention in such frigid conditions. It’s expected to be frigid in Kansas City for this all-important matchup. Could that affect the passing games and their first touchdown outlook?

Raheem Mostert First Touchdown (+800)

The only impediment to Mostert having the shortest odds is likely uncertainty about the Dolphins’ offense in frigid conditions. Miami can move the ball on the ground, however – potentially even better than Kansas City – if Mostert is mostly healthy and De’Von Achane plays as well as he has all season.

Mostert is tracking to play on Saturday, and there’s no doubt the Dolphins are going to use him at the goal line if given the opportunity. The journeyman has enjoyed a terrific season in Mike McDaniel’s offense, totaling 21 touchdowns in just 15 games, and McDaniel isn’t a coach who tends to get away from what works.

Noah Gray First Touchdown (+3200)

The Chiefs have a better chance of scoring first — given the presence of Patrick Mahomes and their own strong defense — but the value on Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce isn’t ideal.

If we’re going to consider a longshot here, Noah Gray just might be the guy at +3200 – longer odds than even Mahomes, who hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since last season.

The Chiefs are no stranger to breaking out some of the most unusual plays in their playbook on stages like this, and that might be especially true in conditions like Saturday’s. Gray has a pair of touchdowns this season, including one in the first quarter, and he’s been targeted at least three times in each of his last three games.

Running games will be favored in this weather, but only nine of the Chiefs’ 37 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground this season. With Pacheco’s odds not enticing, Gray could be a sneaky first touchdown play.

Tyreek Hill First Touchdown (+900)

Tyreek Hill knows Arrowhead Stadium well, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McDaniel try to spark Tua Tagovailoa’s confidence early by drawing up a deep ball for one of the NFL’s best weapons. Hill scored 13 touchdowns in 16 games this season, showcasing his big-play ability with several of his scores coming on downfield shots.

With Jaylen Waddle’s health in question, Hill figures to be well covered, but that hasn’t exactly slowed him down very much in the past. The bigger concern is whether Hill, who has dealt with some drop issues this season, has his hands affected by the cold, but his experience in this environment should benefit him.

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