Get Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs player prop picks & odds for their (1/13/24) matchup.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Picks
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs kicks off this Saturday at 8:10pm EST in Kansas City Missouri as a home game for the Chiefs. The Dolphins are currently a +4.5 underdog and +192 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44. Expect Isiah Pacheco to lead the Chiefs offense while Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa struggle to get the pass attacks going, all giving value as player props for this Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup.
Isiah Pacheco Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
The weather will be about as bad as it can get for an outdoor playoff matchup in the middle of January, featuring high winds and freezing cold temperatures. With poor weather expected to be in effect, both teams may call a heavy dose of run plays in what could shape into a very conservative game script. If this game unfolds as expected, there will be less turnover worthy plays through the air, and greater value on rushing props.
One of the direct recipients of more rush attempts will be Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, a dual threat back who has commanded a brunt of the Chiefs rushing production this season. While his production has been severely underwhelming — ranking 26th in Rush Success Rate — his added attempts can’t go unnoticed as he’s poised for a heavy workload.
Better yet for Pacheco’s rushing yard over, the Dolphins front seven is dealing with numerous injuries and may regress in their run stopping efforts. Both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are on the IR, leaving a big hole in the second level of their defense. With the Dolphins ranking 16th in Def Rush DVOA and 13th in Def Rush Success Rate, as well as losing key players on defense, it’s safe to say Pacheco should continue to churn out yards with each carry he gets.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown
Not only is Pacheco expected to receive a larger load in the mid field, but he will be heavily called upon in the red zone as well. In what should be a low scoring affair due to the weather, maximizing on scoring opportunities will be vital for the Chiefs in order to get the win. That means less pass attempts through the air and more rush attempts against an injury riddled Dolphins front seven. Be sure to line shop as this prop’s odds widely vary, sitting as high as -150 and as low as +100.
Patrick Mahomes Under 23.5 Pass Completions
With more rush attempts for Isiah Pacheco comes less pass attempts for Patrick Mahomes. That directly correlates to less completions for the Chiefs QB, who will need to maximize on lesser attempts against an improved Dolphins secondary in poor weather. Factor in an underwhelming group of pass catchers and the Chiefs pass attack may crumble from the opening kick.
Kadarius Toney drops another pass from Patrick Mahomes and it leads to an INT from the Patriots 😬 pic.twitter.com/v8rebj5sWi
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 17, 2023
The improvement to the Dolphins secondary has been remarkable in the second half of the season, greatly benefiting from the return of star lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey. Since Ramsey’s return from injury, the Dolphins managed to finish the season ranking an impressive 13th in Def Pass EPA and Success Rate.
The Dolphins secondary now gets the opportunity to continue to thrive as they take on an underwhelming Kansas City pass catching group. Travis Kelce has regressed throughout the season, looking slow in his efforts to exploit gaps. Rashee Rice is arguably their only productive pass catcher at receiver, most likely drawing Jalen Ramsey. That allows the Dolphins to double Kelce off the line, daring someone else to beat them for minimal success.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 231.5 Passing Yards
This yardage prop has steadily decreased since the opening number, originally being set at 247.5 and now currently being listed at 231.5. Even with a 16-yard decrease, this under still has some value as the Dolphins pass attack has to deal with their own nagging injuries as well as the horrific weather conditions.
Jaylen Waddle is listed as questionable, and Tyreek Hill is dealing with a lingering injury. Tua is also dealing with an injury yet has stated that he is good to go leading up to kickoff. Better yet for this under prop, the Chiefs secondary has been phenomenal in coverage as they rank fifth in Def Pass DVOA, second in Def Pass Success Rate, and third in Def Pass EPA. With De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert being good to go, as well as facing an elite Chiefs secondary with hobbled receivers, Tua may see limited pass attempts in a run heavy game script.
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