Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview (9/26/21): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview (9/26/21)
Through Week 2, the Raiders are undefeated.
But this feels like a familiar story. Jon Gruden and Co. get out to a hot start and then stutter their way through the rest of the season. But maybe this year will be different.
Luckily, they have a home game against Miami this week. I’m uber-low on Miami this season, and their catastrophic defeat against the Bills combined with Tua Tagovailoa’s injury makes them an easy target in Week 3.
The Raiders are laying four points, but are they worth backing for the third straight week? Let’s dig into this matchup and find the best betting angle.
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Betting Corner
While the Dolphins are in trouble without Tagovoila, I think we can buy low on them in this spot.
Gruden has just a 40% ATS win percentage off a loss, and that number drops to 31% when he’s on a multi-game win streak. The Raiders are going to have to pass the ball to win this game, and that plays right into Flores’ hands.
However, I think the better bet in this spot is the under. Carr and the Raiders might have trouble through the air, and their ground game has been a net-negative through two weeks. Trouble on the offensive line will also make it more difficult for the Raiders to move the ball.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins might not score with Jacoby Brissett under center.
I’m going to predict the Dolphins cover, but I’m going to stay away from the spread and instead just bet the under 44 DraftKings is offering us.
My predictions: Raiders win 20-17, Dolphins cover +4, under 44 points
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Date: Sunday, September 26
Time: 4:05 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
TV Coverage: CBS
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Live Stream
Where can you watch Dolphins vs. Raiders online? You can stream this game, and many other NFL games live online with Hulu. Hulu has a 7 Day free trial and is cheaper than cable options at $5.99/month. Watch Dolphins vs. Raiders Free Online Now.
Miami Dolphins: QB Tua Tagovailoa (OUT), DT Raekwon Davis (OUT)
Las Vegas Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs (Q), G Richie Incognito (OUT)
Miami Dolphins Analysis
Tagovailoa has been ruled out for this week’s game, and it’s going to be tough for Miami to pick up the slack.
Through two weeks, the Dolphins rank 30th in Offense DVOA, which includes 31st in Passing Offense DVOA. The rush offense has been slightly better, but Miami’s still averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Plus, the offensive line ranks just 28th in Adjusted Line Yards. Myles Gaskin cannot carry this offense.
Miami will have to lean on their defense. Luckily, Brian Flores is one of the best defensive head coaches in the league, and the Dolphins rank 11th in Defense DVOA as a result. However, Miami’s turnover luck eventually has to run out. Damien Harris gave them a gift fumble in Week 1, and the Dolphins have recovered two other fumbles in the first two weeks.
The good news is the Dolphins’ secondary has been excellent. The Raiders early-season success has been all Derek Carr, and Miami is perfectly situated to take advantage of that on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins Depth Chart
Las Vegas Raiders Analysis
Is this early-season Gruden magic, or is Derek Carr for real?
Through two games, Carr leads the league in passing yards. He’s completed 66.7% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt, although he’s thrown almost entirely to Darren Waller in the process. He’s targeted Waller 26 times through two games, and he’s caught 12 of them for 170 yards.
However, Henry Ruggs has been a big threat as well:
HENRY RUGGS IS FAST. #RaiderNation
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Ruggs has only caught seven balls through two games, but for a whopping 22.7 yards per reception. He’s one of those receivers that can take the top off the defense, and he compliments Waller’s abilities perfectly.
But where is the run game? The Raiders rank dead last in Adjusted Line Yards and 31st in Rush Defense DVOA. They’re averaging a whopping 2.9 yards per carry through two weeks, and Josh Jacobs is now on the injury list.
That must have to do with issues on the offensive line. With G Richie Incognito banged up, this front is having a lot of issues.
While they’ve posted average numbers through two weeks, the defense is much improved from last season. They’ve allowed 4.8 yards per carry through the first two weeks, but the Ravens’ deadly rush attack made up for a lot of that. Pittsburgh managed just 39 rushing yards against Las Vegas in Week 2.
Las Vegas Raiders Depth Chart
Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders Daily Fantasy Picks
I’m expecting this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, so there aren’t a lot of good DFS picks.
Both defenses would be a good option. If Miami can continue forcing turnovers at a ridiculous rate, they’re sure to put up some points. Meanwhile, Brissett and the Dolphins are likely to be shut down on Sunday afternoon.
If you must look to an offensive player, I’d look at Darren Waller. Through two weeks, Waller has gotten 28% of the Raiders’ Target Marketshare, more than 10% more than their No. 2 option. The Dolphins have a great secondary, but Waller will likely force some mismatches, and Miami ranks just 18th in Defense DVOA vs. TE’s.