Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots (1/1/23): Odds, Predictions, Depth Chart

After promising starts to the season full of playoff hopes, both the 7-8 Patriots and 8-7 Dolphins are in danger of not making the tournament. The Dolphins currently occupy the 7th seed while the Patriots are 8th, one spot outside. With both teams on the edge, this game is likely make or break in determining which of these teams make the playoffs if either do. Let’s look at the odds and matchups to see who has the edge.

Miami Dolphins Vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

The Patriots are -1.5 home favorites over the Dolphins and the over/under is set at 42.5 after starting at 44.5. The Dolphins were initially favored when the lines opened, but the favorites are now the Patriots after news hit of Tua entering concussion protocol.

Miami Dolphins Vs. New England Patriots Prediction

The Dolphins have almost blown their 8-3 start by losing their last 4 games and falling to 8-7. When it seemed Tua had finally moved past much of the criticism he faced his first two seasons, his poor play during the losing streak brought back much of the negative comments and attention he previously faced. This especially rose after Tua threw 3 interceptions in a loss to the Packers. Now Tua is in concussion protocol again and the Dolphins may have to secure their playoff spot without their QB able to play. Whether or not it’s Tua or another quarterback playing, the Dolphins cannot afford to throw risky passes. The Patriots defense is tied for 2nd most interceptions on the season and will certainly look to steal some passes to keep the game close or pull away.

Like the Dolphins, the Patriots are also under hot water and criticism. Now just 7-8 after losing 4 of their past 5 games, the Patriots and Bill Belichick are facing heavy scrutiny. For one, much attention has been called to Belichick sticking with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to run his offense, even though neither are offensive coaches and Mac Jones has taken steps back in his sophomore season. The Patriots also got off to a very slow start versus the Bengals as they trailed 22-0 and did not score until the 3rd quarter. Though they almost pulled off the comeback, it did take some miraculous points to even get 18 points like the alley-oop touchdown on 3rd and 29. The Patriots need more consistent offense if they want any shot at the playoffs or to contend with the AFC’s best.

I’m taking the Patriots to win with Tua in concussion protocol. I’m also leaning toward the under in this game. The Patriots last four home games have all hit the under and I’d be surprised to see heavy scoring with the Dolphins playing Teddy Bridgewater.

Prediction: Patriots 23-17, under hits.

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Betting Trends

Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC East.

Key Injuries

Miami Dolphins Injuries: Tua Tagovailoa (Q), Myles Gaskin (Q), Eric Fisher (Q), River Cracraft (Q), Alec Ingold (Q), Byron Jones (Q), Trey Flowers (Q),

New England Patriots Injuries: Jack Jones (Q), Damien Harris (Q), DeVante Parker (Q), Jalen Mills (Q), Chasen Hines (Q), Brenden Schooler (Q), Andrew Stueber (Q), Hunter Henry (Q), Jonnu Smith (Q), Marcus Cannon (Q), Brian Hoyer (Q), Jake Bailey (Q)

Check out the key matchups and mismatches for Dolphins vs Patriots below.

The Dolphins Offensive Line vs the Patriots Defensive Front

The Patriots can create a defensive edge in this game up front with their defensive line. The Patriots pass rush has sacked opposing quarterbacks 50 times, 2nd most in the league. They are led by Matthew Judon who is also 2nd in the league in individual sacks with 15.5. The Dolphins offensive line has played pretty strong this season and are led by 2022 Pro Bowler OT Terron Armstead. Before Armstead and Judon become AFC teammates for the Pro Bowl, they will face off this Sunday in Foxborough. Whichever’s unit wins in the trenches Sunday will play a determining role in the Dolphins’ offensive success.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs Dolphins Run Defense

The Patriots best offensive weapon may just be RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Though Stevenson had a rough game with just 30 rushing yards and his first fumble of the season versus the Bengals, he had his best game just the week before. The Patriots-Raiders game two weeks ago will be remembered for the bonkers Chandler Jones game winning touchdown on a failed lateral, but Stevenson also had a game to remember as he went for 172 rushing yards while averaging an insane 9.1 yards per carry. In the first matchup between these two teams, the Dolphins limited Stevenson to just 25 rushing yards. However, that was in week 1 and Stevenson only got 8 carries. Let’s see if the Dolphins can repeat their efforts or if Stevenson’s improvement shines this weekend.

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Raheem Mostert
RB2: Chase Edmonds
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Tyreek Hill
SWR: Cedrick Wilson Jr.
TE1: Mike Gesicki

New England Patriots Depth Chart

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A UCLA graduate, Eva is an experienced football writer who specializes in NFL game analysis and weekly storylines. In her free time you can usually find her cheering on the 49ers or watching the latest Josh Allen highlight clip.

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