The New York Jets are holding out hope Aaron Rodgers will be able to make a shocking return this season. But will they be able to stay in the playoff race long enough to make it worth his while? Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are poised to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008. But they can’t afford to drop in-division games. With absolute superstars like Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Quinnen Williams squaring off, let’s dig into some player props for this fascinating Black Friday (11/24/23) matchup.
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Miami Dolphins Vs. New York Jets Player Prop Picks
The Dolphins are heavy favorites, but with one of the best defenses in the NFL, the Jets might not make things easy for them. Let’s see how that will play out on the individual player level.
Dolphins Anytime Touchdown Scorers: Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert (Both -125)
There’s a valid argument to be made that Hill is the best offensive player in the NFL. With 79 catches, 1,222 yards and nine touchdowns, he’s already had an extremely productive season. But there are seven games left. He’s been extremely consistent too, rather than carrying his overall numbers with a few huge outlier performances. He’s scored in eight of the 10 Miami games thus far.
It could be a tough day with Sauce Gardner across from Hill at cornerback. The second-year man is one of the best in the business. Covering Hill with his unparalleled speed is more of a safety’s job, and that is a relatively deficient area of what is otherwise a great Jets secondary. It may not be a record-setting day from Hill, but he should find the end zone.
Conversely, the Jets run defense is actually closer to league-average in terms of DVOA, despite plenty of front-seven talent. They’re allowing nearly 140 rushing yards per game. The value proposition is simple for Mostert. He’s scored four times in his last five games, and 11 times overall this year. He should do it again in a game where the Dolphins should be running with the lead. De’Von Achane has returned, but he had incredibly low volume against the Raiders as he eases his way back into the mix.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115)
As phenomenal as Tagovailoa has been this season, he hasn’t been immune to turnovers. He’s thrown eight picks so far, matching his total from an abbreviated 2022 campaign. Among the 27 passers with at least 260 dropbacks, he’s tied for ninth in turnover-worthy play rate.
This isn’t cause for alarm in the big picture. He’s tied with Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes, quite the eclectic group. But it’s enough to make us wonder what he’ll do against a very tough Jets pass defense. Per PFF, they have the best coverage unit in the NFL, led by the fantastic cornerback duo of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. They’re also graded as the sixth-best pass rush team in the NFL, led by breakout performer Bryce Huff with five sacks and a PFF pass rush grade over 80.
This might not be Tua’s highest-volume passing game, but it’s definitely a challenging situation in which to pass the ball. With plenty of pressure coming his way, expect him to make one mistake and turn the ball over at some point.
Bradley Chubb Over 0.25 Sacks (-115)
This is an absolutely perfect spot to invest in Chubb’s line, for which we’re getting surprisingly favorably-priced odds on the low number of 0.25 sacks. He didn’t get a sack in his last game, but he did in each of the previous four. He is clearly getting dialed in at this point of the season. Just by looking at his PFF pass rush grades by game, he’s really recovered from some early stumbles, with the exception of that most recent game against Las Vegas, which appears to be a relative outlier.
Not only is Chubb playing well, he’s going up against some guys who are playing very poorly. The Jets offensive line is the fourth-worst pass blocking unit in the league per PFF. They’re especially thin at tackle after an extremely costly injury to Alijah Vera-Tucker. Mekhi Becton is solid but hasn’t been playing all that well of late. Nobody else in the Jets tackle group has a PFF pass blocking grade higher than the upper 50s.
You don’t just need ability, you need opportunity, and Chubb should have no issue in that department. The Jets are major underdogs, and even as they break in a new quarterback, Tim Boyle, they should be throwing the ball pretty frequently. With a favorable matchup on just about every snap, Chubb should have every ability to be credited with, at the very least, the half-sack he needs to hit this over.
Quinnen Williams Over 0.25 Sacks (+160)
This one is far from a lock, but the +160 value makes it well worth the play. Not only is Williams one of the best talents at any position in the NFL, but he has a phenomenal matchup in this game. The Dolphins have had some health issues on the interior offensive line, and while Connor Williams is back, Isaiah Wynn is still out, and Robert Hunt is questionable as he deals with a dicey hamstring injury.
That means we will be seeing one or both of Lester Cotton and Liam Eichenberg at guard, who have earned PFF pass blocking grades of 57.2 and an absurdly bad 40.5 thus far this season, respectively. Robert Saleh is still a great defensive schemer, and will give Williams great opportunities to match up with this lackluster interior duo, and he has a great chance to get to Tua and be credited with at least a half-sack.