Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets: Prediction, Odds, Depth Charts (11/24/23)

The Jets are trying something new at quarterback on Black Friday, starting Tim Boyle against the dangerous Dolphins. Let’s take a look at Dolphins vs. Jets odds and predictions as Miami looks to maintain its grip on the AFC East.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Prediction

Bills -7 was my pick last week, but that became a 26-point game because the Jets’ talented defense finally crumbled under the weight of having to support such an incompetent offense. On a short week, that will be a concern again.

The combination of a potent pass-rush and a strong secondary should give Tua Tagovailoa a tough time. But if the defense is constantly forced to be on the field, it will only be a matter of time until Tagovailoa and his star receiver tandem break down the Jets’ defense.

Can the Jets’ offense keep up with Boyle under center? Boyle’s saving grace is that he has shown he can get the ball out quicker than Zach Wilson. But with a depleted offensive line and uninspiring play-calling from Nathaniel Hackett, there isn’t much hope for the Jets’ offense. The return of Jalen Ramsey has also transformed the Dolphins’ secondary, which doesn’t bode well for a Jets receiving corps that only has one steady weapon in Garrett Wilson.

There are games the Jets can win with just with their defense alone, but this isn’t one of them. Whether the defense can sustain its strong play is as big of a question as ever after a tough day against Josh Allen. Tagovailoa should be poised to lead the Dolphins to a sizable win with his defense starting to fire on all cylinders. Miami -9.5 is the pick.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets prediction: Dolphins -9.5

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Best Odds

The Dolphins are favored by 9.5 points on the road, entering Friday at -520 on the moneyline. The over/under is 41 points.

Miami was initially favored by less than a touchdown before the Jets’ implosion in Buffalo last weekend. Oddsmakers aren’t high on new QB Tim Boyle, and it’s hard to blame them. The question now is whether this will be a Jets-style defensive slugfest or a game the Dolphins can run away with early on.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Key Injuries

The Dolphins are dealing with a few minor injuries, as RB De’Von Achane is questionable with a knee injury after aggravating a knee injury against the Raiders while OG Robert Hunt (hamstring) is questionable after missing last week’s game. WR Tyreek Hill (hand) was also limited in practice early in the week but is expected to play.

For the Jets, OT Mekhi Becton (ankle) was originally expected to miss Friday’s game but could still play. OT Duane Brown is expected to be activated from IR, while WR Garrett Wilson remains on the injury report with an elbow injury but isn’t expected to miss time.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Key Matchups

Here are some of the key matchups that could decide Dolphins vs. Jets.

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Jets Pass Defense

Sauce Gardner and the Jets secondary – including a struggling Jordan Whitehead – had arguably their worst performance of the season in Buffalo. While it wasn’t necessarily ugly, the final score reflected what happens when a talented defense simply gets worn down from having to pick up a brutal offense. It’s natural for some cracks to form when the defense is constantly on the field, and Friday might be an opportunity for Tua Tagovailoa to take advantage of that.

The overall numbers for the Jets’ pass defense remain strong, with New York allowing 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Tagovailoa is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt, and he’s been able to take advantage of defenses both with the short game and the deep ball.

If the Jets can take away Tyreek Hill as a downfield option, this game could skew toward a low-score, defensive battle. It just might not be sustainable for four quarters if the offense can’t stay on the field.

New York Jets Offensive Line vs. Miami Dolphins Pass-Rush

The Dolphins don’t have any truly intimidating pass-rushers – Jaelan Phillips is hoping to get there – but their defense is still top-10 in sacks per game with 3.1. That figure could rise after this weekend.

The Jets are running out a makeshift offensive line and have lost a starter to injury each game dating back to early October. With few weapons for the Jets outside of Garrett Wilson and a fresh new quarterback under center, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dolphins draw up heavy pressure in this one and try to take advantage of a depleted line as best as they can.

Boyle notably didn’t take a single sack in three starts with the Lions in 2021, so the Jets will be expecting him to get the ball out much quicker than Zach Wilson. The offensive line wasn’t exactly a problem with that otherwise dismal Lions team, however. This situation might not be as kind to Boyle.

Miami Dolphins Depth Chart

QB: Tua Tagovailoa
RB1: Raheem Mostert
RB2: De’Von Achane
RB3: Salvon Ahmed
LWR: Jaylen Waddle
RWR: Tyreek Hill
SWR: Cedrick Wilson Jr.
TE1: Durham Smythe

New York Jets Depth Chart

QB: Tim Boyle
RB1: Breece Hall
RB2: Dalvin Cook
RB3: Israel Abanikanda
LWR: Allen Lazard
RWR: Garrett Wilson
SWR: Randall Cobb
TE1: Tyler Conklin

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