Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Betting Odds
As both teams navigate underwhelming seasons, the Hurricanes will travel to Tallahassee and try to build on a three-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles are trying to avoid a three-game skid.
Both Miami and Florida State are working on lost years, and their backers aren’t having a good time either. The two are a combined 7-11 against the spread (ATS).
So, when neither team is profitable, which one do we back?
Miami (FL) Hurricanes Odds
D’eriq King was a Heisman favorite entering the season, but he played awful and then got hurt. But his backup, Tyler Van Dyke, has stepped up in his absence.
Van Dyke is completing over 63% of his passes for over 10 adjusted yards per attempt. He’s posted a 15:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has led the Hurricanes to a top-30 Pass Success Rate.
Van Dyke’s also been a stud during this winning streak. During the streak, he’s averaged a 72.4% completion rate, 380 yards, and three touchdowns to no interceptions.
For some reason, Van Dyke still has a lower PFF passing grade than King, despite a higher average depth of target and a better Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio. If I’m the Hurricanes, I’m considering a full-time change under center.
The defense, however, is struggling. Specifically in crunch-time situations. The Hurricanes are 120th in Finishing Drives and therefore have allowed over 30 points per game, good for the 11th worst scoring defense in the ACC.
Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds
The Seminoles just get in their own way.
They’re averaging 1.9 turnovers per game and rank 103rd in the country in turnover margin (-0.5). Their 110th Havoc allowed ranking has resulted in McKenzie Milton and Jordan Travis combining for 10 interceptions.
But FSU can run the ball (18th in Offensive Line Yards and 33rd in Rush Success Rate) and punch the ball in when they get down the field (eighth in Finishing Drives). As such, they’re averaging over 28 points per game.
The defense is very undervalued. Given the turnovers, they’ve been on the field for more than they should be. But they’ve held firm, ranking inside the top-50 in every meaningful advanced statistic and inside the top 10 in PFF’s tackling grades.
Hopefully, there should be some positive regression for this Seminole crew. However, they’ll have to start looking forward to next season, because Florida State isn’t doing anything with their 3-6 record.
Prediction and Pick
My pick: Florida State +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
I can never resist betting on a home dog, and I love this one.
The Seminoles have the much-better defense, and that’ll carry them to a win in this game. Van Dyke has been slinging it, but I think he falters on the road in this spot.
Plus, all the betting signals point towards FSU on Saturday. Sharp money has been hitting the Seminoles, pushing this line towards them, and the smart money is on FSU’s side. While only 27% of the tickets are on Seminoles, over 50% of the handle is with them.
Moreover, projections have FSU closer to a pick in this spot, which gives us over two points of edge on the current line.
I like the Seminoles to win outright in this spot, but will happily take the points if they lose in a close one.