Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics 9/27/20: Starting Lineups, Matchup Preview, Betting Odds

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview

This has been an extremely close series when you look at the numbers as a whole. While Miami jumped out to a 3-1 series lead, each game has been close and you could argue the Celtics should be a team-leading. Either way, the Celtics need two more wins to pull off one of the many 3-1 comebacks within these NBA playoffs already. Boston was able to pull away late in Game 5, but errors continued as they looked sloppy at times. Kemba Walker still isn’t shooting particularly well and given that has been a playoff issue, the Celtics can’t rely on that form coming back. These two teams are evenly matched as they rank 12th and 9th in overall efficiency and are both inside the top ten for defenses. Miami has been a better three-point shooting team and also are better in generating assists and moving the ball.  The Heat looked a little soft in Game 5 and they won’t want this thing to get to seven. We should expect a ready to play Heat team and that means no room for error for the Celtics who have taken some quarters off in the series.

TV Schedule

Date: 9/27/20
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Arena: AdventHealth Arena, Orlando, FL
Channel: ESPN

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Heat Starting 5

PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Jimmy Butler
SF: Duncan Robinson
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Bam Adebayo

Heat Analysis

miami heatMiami was ice cold from three last game and they struggled to rebound. This ended up being key as the Celtics had 13 offensive boards and dominated the paint with 56 points. This is unlike the Heat to get beaten up in these areas. Miami also is not likely to shoot this low again as they were one of the better three-point shooting teams across the regular season. Overall the intensity wasn’t there, and it showed in the second half as the Celtics had a key 41-25 third quarter to take some pressure off the fourth. While Miami has been keen on spreading out the ball all year long, I would like to see Jimy Butler have more shot attempts than Jae Crowder. With both benches not being much of a threat in this one, it might come down to Miami getting another strong Tyler Herro game.

Celtics Starting 5

PG: Kemba Walker
SG: Marcus Smart
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Daniel Theis

Celtics Analysis

Boston CelticsBoston has had a tough time closing out leads and has been sloppy in the fourth quarter even dating back to the series against Toronto. A big third quarter gave them the lead in the fourth and they were able to keep Miami from getting back into this. Boston pressed in a few areas, but the rebounds were the most noticeable. Daniel Theis had a great game but the guards were crashing and giving them more rebounds than usual. Boston will need to keep up the defense on the three-point line as they buckled down there. We have seen this all playoffs long as Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead the way offensively. Both scored 25+ points and led the team in shooting. Daniel Theis was a big x-factor with 15 points, 13 rebounds, and three blocks.  The Gordon Hayward minutes are back with 30 and he gave them meaningful minutes despite what might look like an average line.

Heat & Celtics DFS Angle

Jaylen BrownThe scoring has been fairly spread out in this series. Outside of Tyler Herro’s big game you often find the scoring to be balanced. Starting with the backcourt, Kemba Walker continues to shoot the ball at an underwhelming rate, but the last few games have been a bit better and he is getting plenty of threes. The assists come and go so he hasn’t put a full line up yet. Goran Dragic is a solid option who has been a key member for Miami and has averaged 22 real points in seven games against Boston. Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler have been doing a little bit of everything, but Brown has been the better scorer so far. He has 20+ in each of the last four games and also has 5+ rebounds in each game this series. Tyler Herro and Marcus Smart are solid options as well.

We know where the usage lies with this Boston team and it is Jayson Tatum. He has 50+ fantasy points in each of the last three games. Tatum is beginning to get to the line which he needs to do, but his volume is what stands out with 20+ shot attempts in each of the last three games. Bam Adebayo has averaged 18-10-4 in the eight games against Boston this season and in the postseason.

Heat vs Celtics Betting Odds

Heat Spread: +3.5
Heat Moneyline: +130
Celtics Spread: -3.5
Celtics Moneyline: -150
Over/Under Points Total: 214

The public is leaning with the more desperate team and when teams are evenly matched like this, or some will view Boston as the better team, the public money will shift its way there. The over is also heavily being hit, which hasn’t been a sure thing. The over is only 5-4-1 in the last ten games. The ATS is 5-5, and the Celtics are 6-4 straight up. These games continue to be close, but I do like Boston to push seven games tonight. Boston hasn’t played well at times and continues to find themselves in each game. Closing out games has been the biggest issue which is why I can also see a Heat cover. The money line is where I would rather go given the spread isn’t that high. For the under I am leaning on a defensive game and a lot of this rides on some of these secondary players not shooting lights out.

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Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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