Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 7: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (5/29/23)

The Miami Heat visit the Boston Celtics in a huge Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics have won three straight games after going down 3-0, with the last game being won on a buzzer-beater by the Celtics. My prediction is that the Heat cover the 7.5-point spread. The Celtics are the home team, but Game 7 is different and with the emotion, the Heat should make this a close game and potentially still close it out. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Prediction

The Miami Heat have lost three straight after winning three straight games, and now get one more chance in Game 7 in Boston.

The Heat go as Jimmy Butler goes this postseason. Butler is one of the leading scorers remaining in the playoffs while averaging 28.5 PPG. Butler also leads the Heat in assists at 6 per game and in steals at 2 per game this postseason. Bam Adebayo is up next in production and has been a great sidekick to Butler. He averages 17 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9 per game. Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent have also stepped up a lot with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo injured. Both of them average 13 PPG on the perimeter and in the backcourt for the Heat.

The Heat have been very balanced this postseason, but have stood out more on offense. They’re 3rd in offensive rating at 116.4 and 3rd in point differential at +3.3.

The Celtics have a ton of momentum right now after winning three straight and in Game 7 anything could happen.

Jayson Tatum is the key to the Celtics and he’s been great in the postseason. He leads the team in scoring at 28 PPG, in rebounds at 10.5 rebounds per game, and in assists at 5 per game. Jaylen Brown is up next as Tatum’s sidekick and he averages 23 PPG. Marcus Smart and Derrick White are up next in production in the backcourt. Smart averages 15 PPG and leads the team in steals at 1.3 per game, while White averages 13 PPG.

The Celtics have also been a very balanced team, but their offense has stood out in the postseason. They’re second offensive rating at 117.3, third in field goal percentage at 48.2%, and second in point differential at +4.5. They are also first in blocks at 6.5 per game.

This game is going to be close because there’s always pressure with a Game 7. Miami should make this game close and cover the spread, but look for Boston to make history and win the game at home and become the first team to come back from 3-0 in NBA history.
The Pick: Miami Heat +7.5

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

The Boston Celtics are 7.5-point home favorites against the Miami Heat in Game 7 and they are also at -300 on the money line. The over/under is also at 203.5. The Celtics being this much of a favorite makes sense because they’re at home and it seems like all the momentum is with the Celtics now after winning three in a row. The over/under also makes sense because each team is great on defense. The spread could move down a bit because Game 7 could go either way.

Betting Trends

• Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win
• Celtics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss

Key Matchups

Can Jaylen Brown matchup with Jimmy Butler? Can Kevin Love matchup with Jayson Tatum?

Jimmy Butler vs. Jaylen Brown

Jimmy Butler has been great in the postseason. He’s averaging 28.5 points, 6 assists, and 7 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Jaylen Brown most of the game, who’s averaging 23 points, 3 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game. Brown has been good, but can’t matchup with Butler overall and that is a big reason why the Heat should cover the 7.5-point spread. Butler’s defense is the difference in this game.

Jayson Tatum vs. Kevin Love

Jayson Tatum has been great in the playoffs this season. He’s averaging 28 points, 5 assists, and 10.5 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up with Kevin Love most of the game, who’s averaging 7 points, 1 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Love has been decent on the Heat, but Tatum has been much better and should win this matchup easily. The Heat should still cover, but Tatum is a matchup nightmare.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics Starting Lineups

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford

Key Injuries

Miami Heat Injuries: PG Gabe Vincent (ankle) Q, PG Tyler Herro (resume) O

Boston Celtics Injuries: PF Danilo Gallinari (knee) O, PG Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) Q