Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Preview (11/30/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

A budding rivalry will add a new chapter when the Miami Heat travel to Boston in an attempt to avenge their Game 7 Eastern Conference Finals loss last season. In this preview, I cover all angles of this game, including the starting lineups, advantageous matchups, current odds for each team, and my prediction for the bout.

Miami Heat Vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

The Miami Heat are nine-point road dogs against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. Boston’s hot streak has propelled it to the top of the Eastern Conference after a rocky first few games of the 2022-23 season. Danilo Gallinari and Robert Williams III are still sidelined for Boston, while Al Horford and Jaylen Brown are day-to-day. For the Heat, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, and Omer Yurtseven are unavailable. Jimmy Butler’s status for the matchup is up in the air at the time this article was written.

Miami Heat Vs. Boston Celtics Prediction

There’s absolutely no way I can back the Miami Heat against Boston, even though they have put together three straight wins. The Celtics have displayed the most efficient offense that we have seen in quite some time, holding a rating of 120.9, an outrageous number for a larger sample size (roughly the first quarter of the season.) Boston has managed to put together a 13-1 record in its last 14 games, with an average winning margin of nearly 12 points.

For Miami, Jimmy Butler looks like he will not be available once again. Butler has missed the past six games for Miami and, consequently, the Heat have gone 3-3. Even with the six-time All-Star playing, the Heat have looked horrendous on offense, only putting up an average of 108.4 points per game in a “gettable” Eastern Conference.

This game should be a matchup nightmare for Miami; it doesn’t have enough scoring on the floor to possibly keep up with the Celtics. The way Boston has played offensively will make it incredibly difficult for a team that ranks 24th in effective field goal percentage and 25th in 3P% (three-point percentage) to keep up. I’ll continue to ride with Boston until the wheels fall off.

Betting Trends

  • Miami is 4-5 ATS on the road in 2022-23
  • Boston is 8-3 ATS at home in 2022-23
  • The combined over record of these two teams is 23-18-1 in 2022-23

Key Matchups

The key matchup for this bout between the two Eastern Conference finalists from a year ago is Bam Adebayo versus the Boston Celtics’ frontcourt defense. Check out my analysis below to see which has the advantage in what will be a game between two prideful teams looking to mark their territory!

Bam Adebayo vs. Boston Celtics’ Frontcourt

As we all know, Boston’s defense has not looked the same as it did last season; however, it has not needed to because of how incredible it has been on the offensive side of the floor. As mentioned above, Boston holds the best offense in the league by a wide margin.

Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo has really flexed his offensive skillset in his past two games, posting 38 points and 12 rebounds against the Washington Wizards and 32 points and eight rebounds versus the Atlanta Hawks.

Al Horford is a high-IQ defender, and he’s surrounded by plenty of athletic wings, but it’s not likely that he will be able to hold Adebayo to reasonable numbers with the way he has been playing. As long as Adebayo is aggressive on offense, he has the clear advantage against a Robert Williams-less Celtics frontcourt. Advantage: Bam Adebayo.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Max Strus
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Bam Adebayo

Boston Celtics Starting Lineups

PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Grant Williams
C: Al Horford

Key Injuries

Miami Heat Injuries: Jimmy Butler (Out), Omer Yurtseven (Out), Victor Oladipo (Out), Duncan Robinson (Out), Haywood Highsmith (Q)

Boston Celtics Injuries: Robert Williams III (Out), Danilo Gallinari (Out), Al Horford (Q), Jaylen Brown (Q)

Drew is a lead NBA writer at Lineups.com where he has been covering in-season basketball coverage to the NBA Draft. He is a former collegiate player who now spends time diving into NBA prospects and evaluating the analytics of the NBA.

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