Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Game 4: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (6/9/23)

The Denver Nuggets (2-1) wrested back home-court advantage by picking up a road win in Game 3 versus the Miami Heat (1-2). Only one Finals team (2016 Cavaliers) has ever come back from down 3-1, so it’s essentially a must-win game for Miami. Can the Heat even the series?

Check out below for Nuggets vs Heat predictions, odds, trends, and starting lineups.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Prediction

Prediction: 1st Half Nuggets -1.5

These are the halftime scores of the first three games: Nuggets by 17, Nuggets by 6, and Nuggets by 5. Denver has routinely gotten out of the gates early this series because they throw new wrinkles at Miami’s defense that allow them to maximize Jokic, Murray, and company. Whether it’s punishing Miami’s defensive matchup choices in Game 1 through Aaron Gordon bully ball or moving Jokic from the free throw line to the block in Game 3, Denver’s preparation is excellent.

The Heat are then forced to adjust, which they are able to eventually do because of Eric Spoelstra’s genius. He’s a huge reason behind why Miami thrives in the second half and orchestrates comebacks. However, that takes time because Miami is the team that’s reacting. Therefore, Denver in general has the first half advantage over Miami.

As for basketball potential, the Nuggets are simply the better team. Jokic is killing Miami as a scorer and passer, but the Heat are also barely hanging on trying to neutralize Murray’s offensive explosions. As a result, the Nuggets own a 117.6 Offensive Rating this series, which would have ranked 2nd in the NBA behind the Sacramento Kings. The scary part? Porter Jr and Caldwell-Pope are a combined 5/28 from deep despite both shooting above a 41 3PT% during the regular season. Factor in regression to the mean, and Denver’s high-flying offense becomes even more unstoppable.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Denver is a decent favorite as the spread is -3.5 Nuggets. For Miami’s +140 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, they must win here at least 41.7% of the time. The over under remains low at 210.5 total points, although it’s reasonable given the pace and defenses.

The Nuggets are now 27-10 ATS in the last 37 meetings versus the Heat.

Betting Trends

  • Nuggets are 27-10 ATS in the last 37 meetings
  • Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings

Key Matchups

Which teams will win the game-determining matchups?

Michael Porter Jr

He’s 3/19 from three, which is highly uncharacteristic of him considering he’s one of the best shooters in the league. Can he find his groove? When Porter Jr is raining threes as the third option, it makes Denver’s offense borderline invincible. Can he return to his defensive form too? Porter Jr has been a superb weak side rim protector and solid on-ball defender, but his shooting slump has coincided with defensive regression. If both sides return, then the Nuggets are a heavy favorite here.

Heat 3PT Shooting

This key matchup is a constant throughout the series – it’s the swing factor for Miami’s offense. They ranked 27th in 3PT% during the regular season but lead the playoffs in 3PT%. Miami has shot well from three, but how long can they sustain this abnormal stretch? If they morph back into their typical shooting profile, then Miami’s in massive trouble.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineups

PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SF: Michael Porter Jr
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Jokic

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets Injuries: Collin Gillespie (O)

Miami Heat Injuries: Tyler Herro (O), Victor Oladipo (O)

Post
Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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