Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Preview (10/27/22): Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds

The Miami Heat (2-3) continue their Western Conference road trip against the defending champs Golden State Warriors (2-2). The Heat are fresh off a dominant 119-98 win over the previously undefeated Trail Blazers, while the Warriors will look to bounce back after an awful 134-105 loss to Phoenix.

Can Golden State defend home court? Odds, predictions, key matchups, and starting lineups can be found below.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

The Warriors enter this matchup heavily favored, as the spread is -6 Warriors with their moneyline at -235. Miami’s moneyline is +205, so they must win this game 33% of the time to be profitable long-term. At 227 total points, the over under is on the larger side.

Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction

Although it’s -6, I am going with the Warriors to cover here. I would have jumped on the Heat if it was last season or two seasons ago, but Miami appears somewhat diminished so far.

Jimmy Butler remains an excellent scorer and playmaker, but he faces a tough task here. Wiggins and Draymond are elite defensive forwards who can mostly subdue Butler’s ability to influence the game at all levels. While Butler will still score 22+ points here, I expect his playmaking to dip, which is catastrophic because Miami relies on him boosting teammate shot quality.

Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo represent their next best offensive players. Herro will provide effective scoring, but his defensive deficiencies will arguably deem him a net negative due to Curry and Klay hunting him. Adebayo, meanwhile, is exceptionally passive on offense and doesn’t command the ball even though it would balance the offense. Looney isn’t an easy basket, but Bam possesses the talent to impose his will on him. Unfortunately, I expect Bam to be content shooting 10 FGA.

Miami’s defensive backcourt cannot hold up. Lowry is past his prime and cannot decently guard offensive stars anymore, while Herro is a poor defender who struggles to navigate screens. This reality is worrisome considering Curry can explode for 40 points and Klay likely orchestrates a revenge game after his fight and subsequent ejection versus the Suns.

Golden State’s bench usually dominates, but Miami’s bench can actually compete. Vincent and Strus can match Poole’s production, while Duncan Robinson is a potential flamethrower every game. James Wiseman could exploit the Heat bench, but he doesn’t score at a high enough rate to cause considerable damage. As a unit, the benches are a wash to me.

Overall, Golden State’s backcourt can shred Miami with ease. Jimmy Butler is always a concern to play against, but Wiggins and Draymond represent viable options to contain him. Add in the fact that the Warriors are home and they will seek to avenge their pitiful loss, and the Warriors cover enough to back them.

Betting Trends

  • Heat are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings
  • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings

Key Matchups

Which team will win the positional matchups? Check out below for these vital battles.

Duncan Robinson vs. Duncan Robinson

A player against himself? Robinson has the potential to go scorched-earth against any team no matter the defense, but he’s wildly inconsistent for a player with his shooting skills. The Heat must successfully hit high variance plays to keep up with Golden State, and it starts with Robinson. He’s deadly shooting off of screens, and the Warriors bench perimeter defense lacks fangs. If Robinson finds his groove, the Heat could easily receive 21 points on 7/10 from three. He will heavily influence whether Miami covers or not.

Bam Adebayo vs. Kevon Looney

Miami absolutely needs interior production because it would be futile to try and defeat Golden State through only perimeter jump shots. Bam must be aggressive and seek his own shot instead of passing out. He’s historically been an efficient scorer on high volume, but his reluctance to take over a game has crippled his offensive production. If the Heat are going to win this game – and the championship – it’s essential that Adebayo transforms himself into a 20 PPG player down low.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Caleb Martin
PF: Jimmy Butler
C: Bam Adebayo

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Miami Heat Injuries: Victor Oladipo (O), Omer Yurtseven (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Donte DiVincenzo (O), Andre Iguodala (O)

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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