Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks 3/2/22: Starting Lineups, Matchup Preview, Betting Odds, Predictions

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Matchup Preview (3/2/22)

The Miami Heat (41-21) travel to face the Milwaukee Bucks (37-25) Wednesday night in a battle between Eastern Conference foes. The surging Heat are riding a 4-game winning streak and are winners of nine of their last ten. Over that ten games span, they own the 15th Offensive Rating and 2nd Defensive Rating. Their deadly defense has gotten the job done for them. The Heat are coming off an impressive 112-99 win over the Chicago Bulls; the Heat were up 24 points entering the 4th quarter. Gabe Vincent started in place of Kyle Lowry and led the Heat in scoring with 20 points on 7/13 from the field. Bam Adebayo showed his versatility with 15 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Off the bench, Tyler Herro produced 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Entering the contest, DeMar DeRozan had scored 30+ points in his last ten games. The Heat managed to hold him to 18 points with only five free throw attempts. Against the Bucks, Vincent will likely get the start again in place of Lowry, who is expected to be out. The forward rotation may be thin, as Caleb Martin and Markieff Morris are game time decisions. 

The Bucks are currently the 4th seed and one game behind the 3rd seed 76ers. The Bucks have won six of their last ten games with the best Offensive Rating and 23rd Defensive Rating over that span. They are coming off a 130-106 annihilation of the Charlotte Hornets where they led by 32 points entering the 4th quarter. Giannis Antetokounmpo had an efficient night – 26 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 assists on 60 FG%. Bobby Portis posted a double-double (20 points, 10 rebounds) on 4/7 from three. Jrue Holiday was also hot from deep, going for 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists on 62.5 3PT%. Khris Middleton had an off shooting night (5/16), but the Bucks didn’t need much production from him. The team will be without George Hill, Pat Connaughton, and Brook Lopez as they are all out. Wesley Matthews is the bench sharpshooter for the Bucks with Connaughton sidelined.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds

The Heat lead the season series 2-1 even though Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler missed two of those games. The Heat dominated the first matchup 137-95 on October 21st, but the Bucks retaliated with a 124-102 blowout on their own on December 4th. A few days later, the Heat won the third game 113-104 on December 8th. Since the last matchup was almost three months ago, the teams should enter this game with a fresh perspective. It will be strength against strength; over the last ten games, the Bucks are 1st in Offensive Rating, while the Heat are 2nd in Defensive Rating. In this final matchup of the regular season, I like the Bucks to even the series 2-2 in a nail-biter. This game can easily go either way, but a few factors have me leaning Bucks here. Lowry’s absence is a significant loss for the Heat, although Vincent is a decent starter in his place. The Bucks have three of the five best players with Giannis being a top 3 player in the world. Also, the Bucks failed their last test against an Eastern Conference foe by losing to the 76ers on February 17th. I don’t think Giannis allows the Bucks to fail again in a measuring stick game. 

TV Schedule

Date: 3/2/22
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Arena: Fiserv Arena – Milwaukee, WI
Channel: NBA League Pass

Live Stream Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Free Online: Watch Every NBA Game

You can stream this game online for free. You can get a free 7-day trial and live stream NBA games from any device. Click the banner below and start watching.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: PJ Tucker
C: Bam Adebayo

Miami Heat Analysis

The Heat can oust the defending champions with their defense and bench advantage. Jimmy Butler (1.8 SPG), PJ Tucker (0.8 SPG), and Bam Adebayo (1.5 SPG, 0.9 BPG) is the best defensive frontcourt in the league. Giannis will have his work cut out for him because Adebayo can match his lateral quickness. Butler and Tucker’s active hands will stifle the driving lanes for Giannis as much as possible. According to Basketball Reference, the Heat have five players (Adebayo, Butler, Tucker, Lowry, Vincent) in the top 57 for Defensive Box Plus Minus. Adebayo (9th) and Butler (10th) spearhead this fearsome group. The Heat are 3rd in pick and roll ball handler defense by allowing only 0.81 Points Per Possession. Jrue Holiday’s main offensive contributions come from the pick and roll, so this matchup doesn’t bode well for him. 

Off the bench, Tyler Herro and Max Strus wreak havoc on opposing reserves. Herro is the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year with 20.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 3.9 APG on 43/37/85 shooting. Herro’s efficient jump shot off the dribble forces defenses to focus on him at all times. Max Strus (10.6 PPG, 40.3 3PT%) can leverage this added space by getting cleaner looks from deep. Strus has been one of the most efficient spot up shooters in the NBA this season because of this reality. The Bucks need Jevon Carter to slow down Herro defensively while Wesley Matthews matches Strus from three. Even if that improbable event happens, the Heat still have the bench advantage with Omer Yursteven terrorizing the boards.

Milwaukee Bucks Starting Lineup

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bobby Portis

Milwaukee Bucks Analysis

The Bucks need Giannis to dominate the paint, so he needs as much space as possible. Bobby Portis has been a revelation for Giannis this season because of his ability to space the floor. He’s shooting 41.6 3PT% for the year while also aiding Giannis on the boards at 9.2 RPG. In ten February games, Portis averaged 19.5 PPG and 9.0 RPG on a 53/44/66 shooting split. With Adebayo likely marking Giannis, Portis will be tested with PJ Tucker’s ferocious defense. The Heat will not be able to help inside constantly if Portis is getting clean looks from three. In addition to Portis, the Bucks have Jrue Holiday to space the floor. Holiday averaged 19.5 PPG and 6.8 APG on an incredible 58/55/71 shooting split in February. It will be tough for Holiday to get the offense going in the pick and roll, but his spot up shooting will be a tremendous help. 

Defensively, the Bucks must pull themselves together and play to their potential. Owning the 23rd Defensive Rating over the past ten games is unacceptable for a team rostering Giannis and Holiday. Stopping Butler’s facilitating is a huge task, but the Bucks are up for it. Middleton is an underrated defender who has been decent guarding the pick and roll this season. Butler’s bread and butter is running the pick and roll, so the Bucks can throw either Middleton or Holiday at him. 

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Daily Fantasy Picks

I like Giannis, Portis, and Butler in this matchup. In his last nine games, Giannis averaged 32.1 PPG, 12.2 RPG, and 7.0 APG on 60.9 FG%. The Heat have the best chance of slowing him down, but that would still mean a 25-point double-double. Giannis is a lock for fantasy every time he is on the court. Apart from Giannis, I expect Bobby Portis to flex his shooting prowess against the Heat. He’s made 12 of his last 21 three point attempts, good for 57.1%. With defenses focused on guarding the Bucks trio, Portis can find the open cracks and launch from deep. A 20-point double-double is reachable for Portis here. For the Heat, I expect Butler to stuff the box score. In February, he averaged 20.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.5 APG, and 1.5 SPG on 44.8 FG%. With Giannis guarding Bam and Holiday guarding Vincent, Butler has the best chance to explode offensively. Look for Butler to flirt with a triple-double while adding a couple of steals.