Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (1/6/23)

No LeBron, no problem for the LA Lakers? Woof, what an embarrassing loss for the Miami Heat. Even against the anemic Lakers, the Heat could not muster enough offensive production to secure what should have been an easy win. This has been a cause for concern as they have dealt with stalled out offensive drives and injury concerns all season. Not an ideal recipe for sustained success. Can they bounce back against the hobbled Suns?

Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Team Betting Odds

Oddsmakers were initially undecided on their ability to secure this win, opening the game as a pick’em. Bettors on the other hand believe this is an ideal buy low spot as they have backed the Heat up to as high as -1.5. This is a tough one as both units’ productions have drastically fallen off a cliff for different reasons. The Suns have been dealing with an injury to Devin Booker, losing a large part of their offense while the Heat’s consistency has been an issue all season.

As for the total, oddsmakers believe points are expected to be scarce as they opened the total at 217. Bettors are in slight agreement, taking the number down slightly to 216.5 in some shops as of writing. This comes as no surprise as the game script calls for an extremely sloppy performance on both ends. Both the Suns and Heat have had their fair share of offensive troubles while still fielding impressive defenses that have helped them stay afloat.

Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Prediction

The Pick: Under 217

With that said, this is an under play for me at no lower than 216 as we may be in for an anemic display of offense over the course of a full game on both ends. Especially with both defensive efficiencies still playing at a respectful rate, and both dealing with injuries with those who were capable scorers.

The Suns especially, a team that is sorely missing their star player Devin Booker. Once playing at a top-10 rate in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, now are dead last in offense since his absence. Scoring has been tough to replicate as Chris Paul has been playing at an all-time career low and Deandre Ayton has struggled against productive opposing big men. He now gets Bam Adebayo.

As for the Heat, this offense has mightily struggled at sustaining any offensive success. While their starters have played at an above average rate, they severely lack depth and health and have not been able to put together a complete game. Duncan Robinson is a shell of himself, and their sixth man Tyler Herro has slotted into a starting role. Their lack of continuity has resulted in a 24th ranked AdjO so far this season.

Betting Trends

• Under is 6-1 in Heat last seven games coming off of one day’s rest
• Under is 35-15-1 in Suns last 51 games following a straight up loss

Key Matchups

Can Mikal Bridges generate any scoring production if Ayton is locked up by Adebayo?

Jimmy Butler vs Mikal Bridges

It can’t be overstated how bad the Sun’s offense has been without Devin Booker. A star in his own right and arguably one of the best shooting guards in the NBA. Without him? They lack a new number one option.

Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges have tried their best to try and carry the offensive production but have failed to do so successfully. Both are now picking up very tough assignments that play very well towards our under ticket.

While Deandre Ayton picks up Bam Adebayo, second option Mikal Bridges has to deal with Jimmy Butler. One of the best on ball defenders in the league. The Suns last saw him locking down Booker in the final seconds of the game, getting the game winning block.

With Bridges not having the shot generating abilities that Booker does, this makes for an easy assignment for Butler and company to limit the scoring production.

Verdict

With both offenses severely reeling, yet still possessing good defenses, take the under at no lower than 216 in what will be a defensive slugfest.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Tyler Herro
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Caleb Martin
C: Bam Adebayo

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineups

PG: Chris Paul
SG: Landry Shamet
SF: Mikal Bridges
PF: Torrey Craig
C: Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Miami Heat Injuries: Caleb Martin (Q), Duncan Robinson (O), Udonis Haslem (Q), Nikola Jovic (O)

Phoenix Suns Injuries: Devin Booker (O), Cameron Payne (O)