After four weeks, the Marlins still have some hope of postseason contention this season. Picking up a win over the NL East-leading Braves would be a nice step toward staying relevant in the summer. Miami will have Braxton Garrett on the mound against Braves starter Kyle Wright. Atlanta is a home favorite at -190 on the moneyline in this one.
Let’s make predictions for Thursday’s matchup and break down why the safest bet here might be the over.
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction
The Braves are in better position to win this game, considering the way their offense has been playing. Atlanta is once again one of the most dangerous teams in the league from a power standpoint, especially at home. Their clash with Garrett will be interesting considering the young starter has limited homers well, but an inexperienced arm against this lineup is a potential issue.
The problem here is there isn’t enough value on the Braves at -190, and I’m not confident enough in Kyle Wright to go all in on Braves -1.5. The Marlins’ offense is nothing impressive, but Wright still seems to be settling in after starting the season on the IL and might not be over his control issues.
The best bet here might be the over. There’s some concern with the hitters having to play a day game after a night game, but the Braves are too talented and Wright has been too unsteady for that over 8.5 runs not to look attractive.
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs
Marlins vs. Braves Odds
The Braves enter as strong favorites at -190 on the moneyline. The over/under is 8.5 runs, and you can get Atlanta -1.5 at +100.
Atlanta has home-field advantage, and the huge disparity between these offenses is enough to keep the line strongly in the direction of the Braves even with Kyle Wright’s struggles to start the season.
Marlins vs. Braves Key Matchups
Here are the key matchups that could decide Marlins vs. Braves.
Kyle Wright vs. Control Issues
The biggest reason for Wright’s breakout season in 2022 was the work he did to regain his command. He battled control issues early in his MLB career and wasn’t able to carve out a permanent place in the rotation until last season because of them.
Since returning from the IL, Wright has dealt with some more control troubles and has those walk numbers where they were early in his career. Wright only walked one batter in his most recent start and should continue to get his control issues under wraps as he gets more comfortable back on the mound.
Against a Marlins team that typically doesn’t beat you with its offense, Wright can’t give out too many free passes and open the door for Miami to score runs. It’ll be interesting to see whether Wright continues to look like a work-in-progress.
Braxton Garrett vs. Braves’ Power
Similar to Wright, Garrett opened his career with some control issues but has started to figure it out over time. He had a promising stint in the majors last season spanning 88 innings and has looked even better early in this season. Can Garrett keep that up? He had a low home run rate last season and has only allowed one home run in four starts this season.
The Braves’ lineup is going to be a serious test of that trend. Atlanta hit six home runs in the series opener on Tuesday and kept pouring it on Wednesday with homers from Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr.
Between those two and surging bats like Sean Murphy and Ozzie Albies, Garrett will have his hands full in Atlanta and has to keep the ball in the park – especially considering the poor offense he has supporting him. That might be easier said than done.
Marlins vs. Braves Starting Lineups
Marlins Starting Lineup
CF Jazz Chisholm L
1B Garrett Cooper R
DH Jorge Soler R
2B Luis Arraez L
LF Bryan De La Cruz R
RF Avisail Garcia R
3B Jean Segura R
C Jacob Stallings R
SS Jon Berti R
Braves Starting Lineup
RF Ronald Acuna Jr. R
1B Matt Olson L
3B Austin Riley R
C Sean Murphy R
LF Eddie Rosario L
2B Ozzie Albies S
SS Vaughn Grissom R
CF Sam Hilliard L
LF Kevin Pillar R