Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (7/7/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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After cruising through the first two months of the season, the Mets have reached a point of urgency. Their NL East lead over the Braves is down to 2.5 games, and they’re an even 12-12 over their last 24 games. A four-game series against the Marlins won’t be as easy as it once looked, with Miami on a 6-game winning streak and back in the fight for a wild card berth. New York will have to face Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara on Sunday, but it’ll be Daniel Castano opening up the series for the Marlins against Trevor Williams.
Let’s take a look at starting lineups, betting odds, and predictions for Thursday’s matchup.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Betting Odds
The Mets are favored at -180 on the money line, which isn’t as close as I expected. Trevor Williams doesn’t inspire much confidence, and the Marlins entered Wednesday with baseball’s longest active winning streak. This will be a critical game for the Mets to win before they face Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara later in the series. I’m just not sure I trust Williams to get it done, especially given how much he’s struggled in spot starts. The Marlins are a solid value at +155.
Miami Marlins Starting Lineup
D. Castano L
1-1 2.42 ERA
2B J. Berti R
DH G. Cooper R
1B J. Aguilar R
CF J. Sanchez L
RF A. Garcia R
3B B. Anderson R
SS M. Rojas R
C J. Stallings R
LF B. De La Cruz R
Miami Marlins vs. Trevor Williams
The Mets have Max Scherzer back and Jacob deGrom on the way, but until deGrom returns, they’re forced to turn to Trevor Williams. A reliable starter for the Pirates from 2017-2018, Williams has a 4.34 ERA, 4.82 FIP, and 1.34 WHIP over 45.2 innings with the Mets this season. In-and-out of the rotation all year, Williams has been considerably worse as a starter (5.86 ERA) than as a reliever (2.00 ERA). His walk rate and home run rate are both high, which is never a recipe for success.
The Marlins have a middle-of-the-pack offense this season, though their OPS ticked up to .717 in June. Power hitters Jesus Aguilar and Jesus Sanchez haven’t been the anchors of the lineup Miami hoped they’d be, but both have home run potential against Williams. It’s hard to believe that the most dangerous hitter in this lineup might be Garrett Cooper. That’s not a slight against the Marlins – he’s legitimately been a great hitter this season. Cooper is batting .315 with 6 home runs, a .382 OBP, and an .854 OPS. He’s hitting .378 with a .994 OPS over his last 35 games and has become one of baseball’s top contact hitters. Miami will be without Jazz Chisholm, who’s on the IL with a lower back injury. The Marlins have gotten by fine without him, but Chisholm’s pop will be missed against a tough Mets team.
New York Mets Starting Lineup
T. Williams R
1-5 4.34 ERA
CF B. Nimmo L
RF S. Marte R
SS F. Lindor S
1B P. Alonso R
DH J.D. Davis R
3B E. Escobar S
LF M. Canha R
2B J. McNeil L
C J. McCann R
New York Mets vs. Daniel Castano
Daniel Castano is still only the third-best pitcher from the Marcell Ozuna trade that brought Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen to the Marlins, but he’s starting to make a name for himself. Castano has a 2.42 ERA over 26 innings this season, though he carries a 4.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP into his 5th start of the season. Castano pitches to contact, striking out just 5.2 batters per nine. That may lead to some trouble against a Mets team that puts the ball in play and can create opportunities against the lefty.
The Mets’ OPS is nearly 40 points lower against left-handed starters, and this offense has been struggling to produce like it did earlier in the season regardless of the opposing pitcher. New York badly needs Pete Alonso to round back into form after a down week. The two-time Home Run Derby champ is just 3 for his last 21 without a home run. Can a return to Citi Field get him going? Eduardo Escobar has gotten hot after a rough first two months, with 3 home runs in his last 5 games, and Starling Marte carries a 1.059 OPS over the past week. Castano’s peripheral numbers indicate he’s due for a letdown, but the Mets will have to turn things around quickly if that’s going to happen.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Picks & Prediction
My pick: Over 8 Runs (-115)
The Mets looked like the Mets of old on Tuesday night, when they wasted Max Scherzer’s brilliant return in a 1-0 loss to the Reds. If New York can’t take advantage of the Reds’ pitching staff and score even a run or two, there’s good reason to be skeptical that this lineup can produce enough to survive a Trevor Williams start. Given both pitchers allow plenty of contact, though, look for these two teams to score some runs before aces take the mound later in the series.
