Miami vs. Florida State: Prediction & Odds (11/11/23)

On Saturday (11/11/23), the Miami Hurricanes face the Florida State Seminoles in a crucial ACC matchup. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game and a full preview of the matchup. In addition, find our best bet which is Miami +14.5.

Miami Hurricanes Vs. Florida State Prediction

Florida State is firmly in the driver’s seat in the ACC and a trip to College Football Playoff, but they have a few more hurdles before they get there. This week, they host a Miami team that is coming off a devastating 20-6 road loss to NC State where they were dead on arrival. Their season took a turn for the worse after showing promise early, but this is still a team I’m willing to back as a big underdog.

The Seminoles are currently dealing with significant injuries at the wide receiver position. Keon Coleman was a surprise inactive before last week’s game, and he joined Johnny Wilson, Hykeem Williams, and Deuce Spann. Jordan Travis is a Heisman candidate, but he understandably struggled against a feisty Pitt defense with those missing wideouts.

Miami brings a tough defense into this game that has improved immensely under first year coordinator Lance Guidry. The Canes’ pass rush ranks 7th in the country per PFF and is highlighted by star edge Reuben Bain Jr. That pass rush allows Guidry to avoid blitzing and present disguised coverages for opposing passers.

When Miami has the ball, it’s tough to know what we’ll get out of Tyler Van Dyke. After an awesome start to the season, he has fallen apart in large part due to injuries suffered against North Carolina. Van Dyke has five interceptions over his past two games and hasn’t been a reliable part of the offense.

However, the Canes should be able to run the ball here. Behind a stout offensive line, Miami has a deep stable of running backs that will look to attack a vulnerable Florida State front seven. The Noles rank 91st in run defense EPA, and I expect a rush-heavy approach from the Canes to keep Travis off the field.

We’ve reached a low point in the market for Miami, and there’s value in backing a team that has been very unlucky in the turnover department – they rank 121st with 19 turnovers lost. The Canes can keep this close with their run game and defense while Tyler Van Dyke provides upside for an outright upset if he can recapture his early season form.

Miami Vs. Florida State Prediction: Miami +14.5

Miami Vs. Florida State Best Odds

The odds currently have Florida State favored by 14.5 points here. Keep in mind that the number 14 is a key secondary football number in spreads. The total currently sits at 50.5, which would lead to an implied score of around 32-18.

Miami Vs. Florida State Key Matchups

In this matchup between ACC rivals, we’ll see a clash in style as Miami attempts to use its run game and defense to control time of possession and keep Jordan Travis off the field. Let’s break down how those matchups could play out this week.

Mark Fletcher Jr. Vs. Florida State’s Run Defense

Due to Tyler Van Dyke’s injury concerns, Miami has had to lean into the run game more in recent weeks. Enter true freshman Mark Fletcher, who forced seven missed tackles, averaged 3.91 yards per carry after contact, and converted seven first downs. After missing a few games earlier in the year, he appears to be back Miami’s lead runner.

This is a favorable matchup for Fletcher as Florida State ranks 91st in rushing EPA/play allowed. The Seminoles allowed Duke’s Jaquez Moore to run for 110 yards at a 6.9 YPC clip a few weeks ago despite the Blue Devils lacking any true passing threat. Fletcher has a strong chance to produce big numbers for the second straight week.

Jordan Travis Vs. Miami’s Pass Defense

Given the injuries to Florida State’s wide receiver room, Jordan Travis’s ability to overcome adversity against a stout defense is perhaps the biggest storyline in this game. Travis is currently fourth in the Heisman race according to the betting markets, and he has an impressive 19 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions this year.

Travis is facing a Miami defense that has massively improved under first year coordinator Lance Guidry. The Canes rank top 50 in PFF coverage and passing EPA allowed. The return of star safety Kamren Kinchens last week is massive for their secondary, particularly if Florida State’s dangerous receivers play.

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