Miami vs Kansas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/27/22)

Miami vs Kansas Betting Odds

Outside of a two-point victory in the first round, Miami has rolled through the tournament competition. The Hurricanes beat Auburn by 18 and Iowa State by 14.

However, this will be Miami’s stiffest test yet.

Kansas has become the favorite at many sportsbooks to cut down the nets in New Orleans, given the Jayhawks are the final No. 1 seed left. Kansas is an elite squad with elite playmakers and an elite coach.

But the Jayhawks shouldn’t overlook Miami.

Miami is catching about six points across the market right now, while the total sits at 147.5.

Miami Hurricanes Odds

Kameron McGusty is cruising right now. The man has dropped a combined 47 in his last two games, scoring from all three levels and demolishing opposing defenses.

Perhaps more importantly, he takes care of the ball. As does the whole Miami team. Miami is sixth nationally in offensive turnover rate. Combine that with the Hurricanes’ ability to create turnovers, and Miami finished with a whopping 4.66 turnover margin this year, which was almost a full two-points better than second place in the ACC.

Miami uses aggressive defense to create turnovers and get out in transition. Miami gets out into transition at a top-80 frequency and is the most efficient transition team in the nation (1.22 points per possession).

But Miami forces turnovers at the expense of contesting shots. The Hurricanes allowed a 52.5 eFG% this season, which was 283rd nationally. Additionally, the Hurricanes weren’t efficient in their defensive scheme, allowing 83% of shots to come either at the rim or from the 3-point line.

Kansas will expose Miami’s limitations in that area. But maybe Miami can create enough turnovers to expose Kansas in transition.

Kansas Jayhawks Odds

At its core, Kansas is a collection of great shot makers.

The season has ebbed and flowed. Ochai Agbaji was dominant for a while. David McCormack has had breakout games and has been the interior presence that allows Kansas to be a great offensive rebounding team. Christian Braun has been excellent and consistent all season.

But recently, it’s been Remy Martin. Martin has dropped a combined 58 points in his three tournament games and earned KenPom MVP honors in all of them as a result.

Defensively, the Jayhawks are maybe underrated. The Hawks aren’t good in ball-screen sets, but they’re elite at running teams off the 3-point line and defending the rim. That’s an analytically smart way of defending teams.

All-in-all, Kansas is a smart and talented basketball team on both ends of the floor. The Jayhawks were deserving of a No. 1 seed, but now have to perform on the sport’s biggest stage.

Miami vs Kansas Prediction and Pick

Kansas will run Miami off the 3-point line, but the Hurricanes don’t shoot 3s. Moreover, the Jayhawks might be slightly vulnerable on the interior, as Miami attacks the rim and Kansas isn’t excellent at defending the rim outside McCormack.

Kansas also turns the ball over more than one would think. The Jayhawks were sub-110 nationally in offensive turnover rate, so Miami will find its opportunities to get out in transition.

I think this line is slightly undervaluing Miami. The Hurricanes went 8-2 against the spread as an underdog this season, so I’ll take the Hurricanes to cover one more time.

Tanner joined Lineups to cover everything, but he has vast experience in, and unlimited passion for, Major League Baseball and NCAA Basketball. He’s a McGill University grad and former (Canadian) Division-I alpine ski racer who now spends his time drinking beer and betting home underdogs. Patrick Mahomes is a poor man’s Tom Brady.

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