Michigan Vs. Colorado State Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/17/22)
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Full disclosure right off the bat here – I’m a football guy who casually watches college basketball and graduated from Michigan last year. I have the Wolverines in my Elite 8 primarily because I think it would be cool if we made it to the Elite 8. One of my favorite college memories was watching Michigan knock off Loyola Chicago on my birthday in the Final Four in my sophomore year, and I’m loving the idea of a rematch with Sister Jean in this tournament. Colorado State is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2013, and I frankly am not scared of their 8-2 record to close out the season against inferior competition. I have faith in my Wolverines to get the job done on Thursday.
Michigan Vs. Colorado State Betting Odds
Michigan Wolverines Odds
A 17-14 record overall and an 11-9 finish in the Big Ten wasn’t exactly what Michigan was hoping for this season, but they turned it on down the stretch to lock in a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan ranks 32nd overall on KenPom with the 19th-best offense and the 90th-best defense in terms of efficiency. In NET Rating, the Wolverines rank 34th in the country.
Michigan put together just a 5-10 record against Quad 1 teams, but they had a few massive wins down the stretch. Since February 8, they have put together a 7-4 record against Big Ten teams with huge wins against ranked teams in Purdue and Iowa and significant wins over rivals Michigan State and Ohio State.
The Wolverines are staring down a significant injury heading into this game as Juwan Howard has confirmed senior guard DeVante’ Jones will not play. Jones has been instrumental to Michigan’s success down the stretch of the season, and his 10.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game will be difficult to replace. Freshmen Kobe Bufkin, Ian Burns, and Frankie Collins will be in line for more playing time.
The Wolverines are a proven tournament team with veterans in Eli Brooks, Brandon Johns Jr., and Hunter Dickinson to complement freshmen Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate despite the rocky season. Juwan Howard has his fair share of detractors, but he’s consistently proven himself in the postseason.
Colorado State Rams Odds
Colorado State finished with the second-best record in the Mountain West behind Boise State with a 14-4 conference record and a 25-5 record overall. Colorado State ranks just two spots behind Michigan on KenPom at #34 in the country. The Rams have the 20th-best offense and the 86th-best defense per KenPom, and they rank 28th in the country in NET Rating.
This season, Colorado State has a 5-3 record against Quad 1 teams, including impressive ranked wins over Saint Mary’s and Boise State twice. However, the Rams fell to the San Diego State Aztecs in the Mountain West Tournament and are now facing some travel concerns as they have reportedly not received their itinerary from the NCAA as of Tuesday.
David Roddy is the straw that stirs the drink for Colorado State, and he presents a ton of matchup problems for Michigan. Roddy averages 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting 57.4% from the field and 45.5% from the three-point range. Defending Roddy will be priority #1 for Michigan in this game. Junior guard Isaiah Stevens is the only other player averaging double-digit points for the Rams.
Michigan Vs. Colorado State Picks & Prediction
As Colorado State gets ready for one of its biggest games in program history, it’s working against a spotty tournament track record with just a 4-11 record across ten tournament appearances. Michigan, meanwhile, has all of the makings of a team that has been here before with a 5-2 tournament record since Juwan Howard became their head coach.
The absence of Devante’ Jones is significant. Still, Colorado State’s best lineup has been one with David Roddy at the center, and they can’t play that way against the 7’1” bruising center Hunter Dickinson who is averaging 18.3 points and 8.3 rebounds this season. Colorado State hasn’t faced a center with his capabilities this season.
As far as the over-under total goes, I lean towards the over between two teams rated higher in offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency. The total has gone over in 18 of Michigan’s 31 games (58.1%) but in just 10 of Colorado State’s 29 games (34.5%). Still, with Roddy and Dickinson leading the way for their respective teams, there could be some fireworks in this game.
My Prediction: Michigan wins 73-68, Michigan covers, over 136.5 points
March Madness Bracket
