Michigan vs Iowa: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/17/22)

Michigan vs Iowa Betting Odds

Both Michigan and Iowa now stand at 7-6 in Big Ten play. With only seven games left in the regular season, the two are now fighting for nothing more than conference tournament seeding.

That and a shot at the NCAA tournament.

Iowa is still projected as a 10-seed in the big dance, but Michigan is still on the outside looking in.

Therefore, the Wolverines need this game more.

At the time of this writing, Michigan is catching six points. That feels like too many for a February Big Ten game with seeding implications.

Michigan Wolverines Odds

Michigan is playing better. The Wolverines are now 6-3 in their last nine games with a dominant win over Indiana in Bloomington and an incredible upset win over Purdue.

But it doesn’t seem like Michigan is over the hump yet.

Ohio State went into Ann Arbor on the second game of a three-day road trip and won by double digits. Michigan shot just 4-for-17 for 3, but it still couldn’t muster 60 points against a very exploitable OSU defense – in a rivalry game no less.

The Michigan defense held a very unexploitable Ohio State offense to just 67 points, however. Add that to a dominant defensive performance over Purdue, and things are looking up for a Wolverine defense that couldn’t stop a nosebleed earlier this season.

Hunter Dickinson is playing out of his mind. With a right-handed hook shot and the ability to shoot the 3 – something he’s doing at a 40% clip this season – he’s nearly unstoppable to guard. Dickinson also plays solid interior defense and rebounds strongly on both ends.

Dickinson is also the engine that drives the Michigan offense.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Iowa Hawkeyes Odds

Iowa is an electric offense driven by one of the most electric players in the country in Keegan Murray. Murray is one of the best scorers in the nation, averaging 23.3 points per game.

Murray also works great for Iowa’s offense. He’s similar to Luka Garza in that Murray runs the floor so quickly and immediately finds transition mismatches in Fran McCaffery’s up-tempo offense.

Keegan Murray is one of the best transition forwards I’ve seen in a long time. Ranks in the 95th percentile with good sample size as a transition ball handler. Can go coast to coast with both hands at good speed. Some examples from today vs Nebraska pic.twitter.com/OyONOaNW6m

— Rich Stayman (@MavsDraft) February 14, 2022

Unfortunately, the Hawkeyes can’t pull together big wins.

Iowa has beaten just one KenPom top-50 team in Indiana. Otherwise, it’s lost to every top-tier Big Ten team – as in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue (twice).

There are two parts to that.

First, the team is young. The roster turnover and inexperience are limiting the team’s ceiling.

Second, the defense is poor. Iowa is eighth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. The Hawkeyes also play at an absurdly fast pace, therefore allowing a ton of points – their 71.3 points per game allowed ranks 246th nationally.

Iowa is particularly good at forcing turnovers, however. The Hawkeyes are first in the Big Ten in defensive turnover rate.

Iowa is also first in the Big Ten – and nationally – in offensive turnover rate. The Hawkeyes have one of the highest turnover margins of any team in college hoops.

That’s thanks to the only part of the team that’s experienced. The veteran backcourt of Joe Toussaint and Jordan Bohannon runs the offense to perfection and is particularly active on defense (despite being undersized).

Michigan vs Iowa Prediction and Pick

My pick: Michigan +6 (-105 at DraftKings)

This is too many points for a February Big Ten battle with seeding implications.

I’m also expecting Dickinson to dominate. Iowa runs a small-ball offense with 6-foot-9 Filip Rebraca at the center, and the Hawkeyes are 250th in defensive rebounding rate. Dickinson won’t just overwhelm Rebreca in the post but also grab every available offensive board.

Also, look for Dickinson to stretch the floor and open up space for dribble penetration from the Wolverine guard and wings – all of whom have size advantages on their matchups.

Iowa should shred the Michigan defense, but the Wolverine defense is trending up.

All-in-all, six is just too many points. If Michigan doesn’t win, it should be able to hang around.