Michigan vs Michigan State: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/29/22)
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Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Odds
Michigan-Michigan State is one of the nation’s best in-state rivalries. This Saturday’s game is also a monumental one for the Big Ten landscape.
Michigan is finally building some momentum after a disastrous 7-7 start. The Wolverines have won three straight games, blowing out Indiana in the process.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is looking to remain in the upper echelon of the Big Ten standings after losing two of its last three. The Spartans stand at 6-2 and a half-game behind Illinois and Wisconsin for the top spot.
Michigan is rebounding, and this is likely a good buy-low spot for the Wolverines. However, Tom Izzo and the Spartans are hungry and desperate for a win.
But which team do we bet on?
Michigan Wolverines Odds
Hunter Dickinson has been consistent. He’s a dominant interior presence who’s solid scoring (16.5 points per game) and rebounding (8.4 rebounds per game). Plus, he’s even started to develop his right hand and an outside shot.
Additionally, it’s clear the offense still revolves around him:
Image Credit: CBB Analytics
Meanwhile, Devante Jones has begun to get more aggressive running the floor. He’s scoring in higher numbers recently and dishing out more assists.
Plus, their two-man game has developed well during this recent stretch of games.
However, the most important pieces of the Wolverine puzzle are the team’s two young wings. Freshmen Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate have struggled at times to replicate the production that Isaiah Livers and Franz Wagner created last season.
But recently, the two have stepped up.
Houstan is averaging 17.6 points over his last three games while shooting the lights out from deep (69%). He looked great in the game against Northwestern, both in spot-up situations and driving to the rim.
Michigan freshman Caleb Houstan finding a groove lately. Averaging 17.7 PPG over his last 3 Games while shooting 68.8% from 3.
Will be interesting to see if the talented wing can build off this confidence. Plenty of intrigue. #NBADraft
— No Ceilings (@NoCeilingsNBA) January 27, 2022
Diabate has been inconsistent all season. But over the past few games, he’s been playing the majority of his minutes at the 4 with Dickinson at the 5. That not only gives Michigan more length on the defensive end, but Diabate feels more comfortable there.
As a result, he hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but he’s been very consistent. He’s averaging 10 points and seven rebounds per game over the three-game winning streak.
If the two wings can start contributing at a higher level, the sky is the limit for Michigan. The rest of pieces are in place and Juwan Howard is still coaching at a very high level.
Michigan State Spartans Odds
The Spartans are a very balanced team.
The backcourt tandem of AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker have Michigan State among the top-10 teams in assist rate. The two are combining for almost 10 assists per game and are doing a great job of getting the ball into the right hands.
Unfortunately, those two turn the ball over a ton and force very few turnovers. Among the 14 Big Ten teams, Michigan State is currently 13th in turnover margin.
However, the Sparty backcourt is great at getting the balls to its scoring wings. Gabe Brown and Max Christie are combining to average close to 25 points per game. Brown has been very efficient, but Christie leaves something to be desired.
The Max Christie vs. Caleb Houstan battle is going to be huge in this game. The two freshman wings are essentially battling for supremacy in the state. It’s also likely this game is decided by whichever one performs better.
Freshmen wings are crucial for both teams. U-M and MSU are great teams when Caleb Houstan and Max Christie hit shots. To say they've struggled in losses is an understatement. pic.twitter.com/ldy6cxa8JO
— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) January 28, 2022
Finally, the Spartans have a great defense headlined by an elite rim protector. Marcus Bingham is ninth nationally in block rate and is the team’s best half-court defender (.573 half-court points per possession allowed, 95th percentile).
This is a classic, balanced Izzo team that will likely be playing its best basketball in about a month. Michigan State is not the team you want to see.
Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction and Pick
My pick: Michigan +4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
I think this is too many points.
I think Michigan is starting to find something with their wing play. If that trend continues, Michigan is going to continue to trend upwards while being undervalued due to their early-season struggles.
Meanwhile, I think Michigan State is just a little overvalued. Sparty is also coming off two brutal games against Wisconsin and Illinois, following a very easy early season schedule.
If Houstan can outplay Christie, Michigan will win this game outright. Houstan has been dominant recently while Christie has scored just 20 points in his last three games.
Either way, I’ll take the points with the Wolverines in this in-state battle.
