Mike Trout Fantasy Baseball Outlook & Value 2020

Coming off another MVP season, Mike Trout missed 28 games which gave everyone else a shot to surpass him in the voting. They didn’t. He is the best player in baseball, and it isn’t even close. But is he the best fantasy player? Ronald Acuna and Christian Yelich have given him a run for his money as the first overall pick goes. Acuna is going first overall more often than Trout, who is going second, and Yelich third. The stolen base factor is the reason why Acuna is going higher. Still a consensus top two pick, Trout projects for another stellar season and has been one of the most consistent fantasy options in the game.

Last Three Years Stats

YearGPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBBAOBPSLG
201711450740292123253337222940.3060.4420.629
20181406084711011472443979241220.3120.4600.628
201913460047011013727245104111100.2910.4380.645

Over the past three years, Mike Trout is tied for third in home runs with Nolan Arenado, behind Nelson Cruz and J.D. Martinez. He ranks 9th in runs, 34th in RBI, and 14th in SB. It is also no surprise that he leads the league in OBP (.447), and SLG (.631). You also have to note that he has played 391 games, which is 85 games short of playing three full seasons. Trout needs some better luck in the injury department to churn out a 150+ game season. Expect more of the same from Trout, where he is a rare mix of all the fantasy goods.

2020 Fantasy Projections

ADPAuction $PAABH2B3BHRRRBISBAVG
2.33$48675.2535.6171.732.64.243.7126.7117.416.20.321

Mike Trout is always going to be a top three fantasy pick, and while he might be second or even third this season, Trout brings top tier projections and numbers to the table. He projects for the second most home runs this season, just behind Joey Gallo in terms of outfielders. Trout is also projecting for the most runs, and second most RBI among outfielders. The stolen bases dropped off in 2019, and I am not sure they fully come back to 2017 and 2016 numbers. I do think the range is more 15-20. If you are playing OBP leagues, Trout is the number one option with over a .430 IBP in the last four seasons. He has been over a .400 OBP in all but two full seasons.

Floor

The highest floor of any baseball player is Mike Trout. In a 162 game average, he has had 122 runs, 39 home runs, 102 RBI, and 27 SB. A .419 OBP is also there as well, with a .305 average. Because he has played 134, 140, and 114 games over the last three seasons, that might be where we can point to the floor. If he misses 25-30 games due to injury again, his floor is still ridiculously high. 35 home runs, still 100 runs, and 80 RBI is where he will land if he does miss a few weeks. His .410-.420 OBP floor is just laughable when you think about it. Heading into an age 28 season, Trout is destined for another big year. You feel are safe as anything drafting him inside the top three.

Ceiling

The ceiling year for Mike Trout is a small distance from his floor, and that just says how good he is. We can point to the RBI department, as Mike Trout is going to be leading off. Not the best leadoff spot, but when you are Trout you are still going to drive in runs. 110-120 RBI is a ceiling number there, and 20+ stolen bases is back to ceiling numbers for Trout at this stage of his career. He walks a ton, and has generally been a power bat to bring it all together. He had a season high 45 home runs, and in a 155+ game season, Trout is probably hitting 50+. That upside is there.

Auction/Draft Value

On average, Trout is going a few bucks cheaper than Yelich and Acuna. That is mainly because they are paying for some extra stolen bases in comparison to Trout. His floor is unlike anyone else and his numbers across the board are about as consistent as you can be. Starting your lineups with Trout gives you a safe outfield spot, even with so many names entering the fantasy scene over the last few seasons. Strategies in auction styles can dictate your views on paying this much for a player, but building around a stud is an easy way to go.

Los Angeles Angels Offense

The Los Angeles Angels added Anthony Rendon in the offseason, and will have a healthy Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani as well. The addition of Rendon is going to be big for this offense as a whole. Last season, the Angels averaged 4.7 runs per game, and 4.4 in 2018. Pitching is more the reason why they have not made it to the playoffs in quite some time. Angel Stadium had an average home run park factor to right-handed hitters last season, and has been a slightly below average park factor as a whole over the last five years. We are expecting strong numbers from the Angels offense, and I am curious to see if Joe Maddon changes things up in terms of stolen base attempts. It is tough to tell as during his time with the Cubs, they ran a decent amount in 2018, but didn’t in 2019. Some of this is tied to roster construction.

Statcast Corner

Screen Shot 2020 02 26 at 5.27.43 AMAs you’d expect, Trout excels in the Statcast department. He had 66 barrels last season, which ranked second in the league. He was 7th the year before. Trout is in the 80th percentile in hard-hit percentage and exit velocity. His expected stats are all in the 100th percentile, and there is no luck in Trout’s game one bit. One thing I did notice is that his launch angle went up four degrees from the two seasons prior.

Trout has no weakness. He has a .278 batting average and .276 expected batting average against breaking balls, and that goes up to over .300 against offspeed pitches. While we don’t look at defensive numbers in terms of fantasy, Trout is is one of the top defenders.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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