Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 5/16/19 1:05 PM ET Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, TV: Philadelphia (NBCSC), Milwaukee (FWSI) – Radio: Philadelphia (94 WIIP, WTTM 1680), Milwaukee (WTMJ 62o)
The series currently sitting at 2-1 in the Brewers’ favor, the Phillies look to even things out to further pull away in the #1 spot in the NL East. The Brewers will do all they can to prevent that as they sit 1.5 games back in the Central. Both teams have a winning record in their last 10, so it looks like the series finale will be quite the matchup.
The Brewers send Zach Davies to the bump. The hard-throwing righty has had a great 2019 thus far, further solidifying baseball’s trend of hard-throwers breeding success. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his eight starts and worked into at least the seventh inning in 3 of his starts.
It’s a battle of the Zachs as the Phillies put Zach Elfin on the mound for today’s game. Coming off a 4 hit shutout in his last start, Elfin sits at 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA on the season. Throwing 19 first pitch strikes to 31 batters faced in his last performance, Elfin hopes to do the same in today’s game. Getting out in front of hitters proved successful last game and there’s no doubt if he’s able to do it again today, he’ll throw another great game.
Brewers Starting Lineup
How has 2019 looked for the Brewers thus far? In short, pretty good, but they’re certainly looking to improve. A recent call to the minors brought up much anticipated prospect Keston Hiura who will make his third start today. Putting up 2 hits in his first appearance and 0 yesterday, the right handed hitter looks to give the Brewers the additional bat they need to pull away in the NL Central.
Even though Davies has had a great year thus far, the Phillies matchup does pose some problems for him. McCutchen hits .333 against the right hander with 1 HR. Odubel Herrera boasts the same average with 1 HR as well. Franco sees the ball exceptionally against Davies with a .667 average and 1 HR in just 6 at bats. If Davies can manage to get past these historically problematic hitters, he can succeed as the rest of the Phillies bats haven’t looked very good against him in recent matchups.
Brewers hitting hasn’t looked great lately, most notably with Yelich cooling down significantly. Over his last 7 games, the slugger has posted a .217 average with just 5 hits. While the team has bailed him out during this slump, I don’t expect to see the Brewers keep winning games if he doesn’t turn it around soon.
Phillies Starting Lineup
After a historic offseason acquiring Bryce Harper with what was then the biggest contract the sport of baseball had ever seen, the Phillies sit atop the NL East. However, it’s not because of Harper. His WAA (Wins Above Average) is currently at -0.1. To give some reference, his 2015 season ended with him putting up a WAA of 8.0.
So if it’s not Harper, what has contributed to the Phillies success? Other bats in the lineup like Hoskins, Hernandez, and Segura have been doing much of the heavy lifting. Their pitching has been great as well, as they have a team ERA of 3.84 which puts them at 9th in the MLB. As a team, they’ve put up 18 quality starts on the season.
Elfin matches up well against the Brewers lineup. Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Thames, and Yelich have all never gotten a hit off the right hander. The Brewers having 6 right-handed hitters in their lineup will work in Elfin’s favor, as he’s allowed just a .209 average against right-handed hitters on the season.
Brewers vs Phillies Betting Odds
The line currently sits at MIL -104 and PHI at +104. I expect to see the Phillies take the last game of the series at home to even things out. Elfin poses too much of a difficulty for the Brewer’s lineup and the Phillies match up well against Davies.
Odds & Line Movement Links
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