Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants (7/17/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction

This has been a fun series. The Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants are two competent organizations that have produced winning teams lately.

However, the 2022 versions of these teams have underperformed. Especially on the offensive end.

So, as Jason Alexander and Logan Webb prepare to face off Sunday, who has the edge?

Read on for the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Sunday’s matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Odds

The Brewers do seem quite undervalued at this current plus-money line. But I’ve always liked Webb and the Giants always seem to win with Webb on the mound.

With the wind projected to be blowing straight out to center field at close to 10mph, the over seems like the better play. The number isn’t too high at 8, as well.

Let’s investigate this matchup a little further.

Milwaukee Brewers Starting Lineup

LF C. Yelich L
SS W. Adames R
DH A. McCutchen R
RF H. Renfroe R
3B M. Brosseau R
1B R. Tellez L
2B L. Urias R
C V. Caratini S
CF J. Davis R

Milwaukee Brewers vs Logan Webb

Since Webb entered the full-time rotation, the Giants are 33-12 in his starts. He’s been an absolute gift to this organization and the perfect No. 2 starter behind Carlos Rodon.

His numbers are great. Webb’s 2.82 ERA is top-notch and he’s accumulated a 2.5 fWAR in 18 starts thanks to it. But his peripherals aren’t far behind, with an xERA, FIP, and xFIP all in the 3.00-to-3.30 range. Therefore, he doesn’t project for much regression.

Webb’s a sinkerballer who tries to force ground balls. His ground-ball rate is actually slightly down from last season – about 4% – but I’m not overly worried, as his batted ball statistics are roughly in line with last year.

Webb should have no problem shutting down a Milwaukee offense that has posted a 103 wRC+ this season with eight guys in the regular nine-man rotation posting an OPS+ between 101 and 115.

The Brewers actually have solid power stats, ranking top-five in MLB in ISO. But they rank in the back-half of the league in average and OBP, so no runners are on when the bombs come. That’s not a way to consistently produce runs.

San Francisco Giants Starting Lineup

RF L. Wade L
CF M. Yastrzemski L
LF J. Pederson L
3B W. Flores R
1B B. Belt L
SS B. Crawford L
2B T. Estrada R
DH L. Gonzalez L
C J. Bart R

San Francisco Giants vs Jason Alexander

Alexander is not a guy I believe in. You can’t walk 3.83 batters per nine while striking out just 4.05 and expect to be successful in this league. His xFIP is up at 5.09 while his xERA is up at 5.44, and he’s been barely better than replacement level through seven starts this year (0.1 fWAR).

His batted ball profile is similarly unexceptional.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

But can San Francisco get to Alexander?

Maybe. The offense feels stripped down, but the Giants have posted a top-10 wRC+ behind Joc Pederson’s breakout season. While the Brewers hit for power, the Giants have walked at the fourth-highest rate over the last month (10%). That’s a recipe for success against an anti-control pitcher like Alexander.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants Pick & Prediction

My picks: San Francisco Giants ML (-164 at WynnBet Sportsbook)

I will happily back Webb in this spot. Alexander has been incredibly poor this season and projects for plenty of negative regression.

Backing a lineup as poor as the Giants scares me. But the Brewers’ lineup is similarly terrible, and I think it’ll be tough for Milwaukee to string together runs when Webb is running so well.

The line is slightly high for my liking, but I’m going to back the Giants on the ML until it hits around -175.