Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Game 4: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (4/24/23)

The Milwaukee Bucks face the Miami Heat in Game 4 in a series decimated by injuries. The Heat are coming off a blowout win in Game 3 against the Bucks, but still lost Victor Oladipo to injury. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be back for the Bucks in this game too. The Bucks are currently 8-point favorites, per DraftKings sportsbook, with Giannis back and healthy. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Prediction

The Milwaukee Bucks are one of the best teams in the playoffs and are finally going to be healthy again with Giannis back.

The Bucks go as Giannis Antetokounmpo goes this season. He leads the team in scoring at 31 PPG and in rebounding at 12 per game. It’s a difference with him back. Jrue Holiday is up next in scoring at 19 PPG and leads the Bucks in assists at 7 per game and steals at 1.2 per game. Brook Lopez has been a force down low for the Bucks and averages 16 PPG, while also leading the team in blocks at 2.5 per game. Khris Middleton has also been a big key this series too because he’s been averaging 24 PPG with Giannis out most of the first three games.

The Bucks have been one of the best teams in the NBA this year. They’re 14th in points allowed at 113.3, 4th in defensive rating at 110.9, first in rebounding at 48.6, and 11th in blocks at 4.9 per game. On offense, they’re 8th in scoring at 116.9 and 5th in point differential at +3.6.

On the other side, the Heat have competed in this series, but are reeling with injuries across the board.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo make the Heat go, but both are dealing with injuries. Butler is questionable with a lower body injury. He leads the team in scoring at 30 PPG this series, in assists at 6 this series, and in steals at 2.3 this series. Bam Adebayo averages 17 PPG this series and leads the Heat in rebounds at 8 per game. Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson are next up in production due to the injuries they’re dealing with. Martin averages 14 PPG and Robinson averages 12 PPG in this series.

The Heat are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and remaining in the playoffs. They’re 2nd in points allowed at 109.8 and 9th in defensive rating at 112.8.

The Heat are too injury-riddled coming into this game and Milwaukee is getting their best player back. Giannis is back healthy and because of that Milwaukee should win and cover this game pretty easily.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

The Milwaukee Bucks are an 8-point road favorite against the Miami Heat. The over/under is also at 218. It makes sense that the Bucks are this much of a favorite because Giannis is back and the Heat are very beaten up with injuries. The over/under also makes sense because each of these teams is very good on defense. This spread should also stay where it’s at before tip-off too because of the injury news.

Betting Trends

Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Key Matchups

Can Kevin Love matchup with Giannis Antetokounmpo? Can Brook Lopez matchup with Bam Adebayo?

Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Kevin Love

Giannis is playing MVP-caliber basketball when he’s been healthy this year. He averages 31 points, 6 assists, and 12 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Kevin Love most of the game, who averages 8 points, 2 assists, and 6 rebounds per game. Love has been okay this year in Miami, but Giannis is a different matchup. The Bucks should cover here just because of Giannis being back alone. He’ll energize the team enough on the road.

Bam Adebayo vs. Brook Lopez

Bam Adebayo is such a difference-maker for the Miami Heat. He averages 20 points, 3 assists, and 9 rebounds per game. He’ll be matched up against Brook Lopez most of the game, who averages 16 points, 1 assist, and 7 rebounds per game. Lopez has been very good this year, especially on defense, but Adebayo is a tough matchup for him. Adebayo’s smaller, but he can still cause issue for Lopez down low because of his athleticism.

Milwaukee Bucks Starting Lineup

PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez

Miami Heat Starting Lineups

PG: Gabe Vincent
SG: Max Strus
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks Injuries: SG Wesley Matthews (Calf) O

Miami Heat Injuries: SF Jimmy Butler (Lower Body) Q, SG Victor Oladipo (Knee) O