Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals NFL Player Props & Picks (12/16/23)

Get Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals player prop picks & odds for the (12/16/23) matchup.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals kicks off Saturday at 1 pm EST in Cincinnati as a home game for the Bengals. The Vikings are currently a +3.5 underdog and +148 on the moneyline while the total is set at 40.5. Expect Ty Chandler to hit the ground running while Nick Mullens and Jake Browning duel it out through the air, all giving value as player props for this Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals matchup.

Ty Chandler Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

With Alexander Mattison officially ruled out, it’s now backup running back Ty Chandler’s time to shine. The bar for rush success has been set as low as possible as the ground game has failed to show up at any sort of a consistent rate so far this season. It has gotten so bad that the Vikings rush metrics rank 30th in Rush DVOA and 27th in Rush EPA.

Even though their DVOA and EPA metrics have dipped, the Vikings stable of running backs were able to churn out some mid-field success as they rank ninth in Rush Success Rate. With Nick Mullens getting the starting nod, expect the Vikings to start out with a conservative run heavy approach which feeds into Chandler’s chances of clearing this mark.

When getting the call, Chandler will be in a great position to succeed as the Bengals front seven has struggled at limiting the ground game. Heading into this contest, the Bengals front seven ranks 27th in Def Rush DVOA, 25th in Def Rush Success Rate, 26th in Def Rush EPA, and 26th in Def Adjusted Line Yards.

Ty Chandler Anytime Touchdown

With Nick Mullens under center, and oddsmakers pegging the Vikings as an underdog, Minnesota will need to capitalize on all its scoring opportunities when entering the red zone. That means we may see an uptick in rushing attempts, feeding it to Ty Chandler and minimizing potential turnover worthy plays through the air.

The Vikings are also expected to keep this tighter than the spread implies, originally opening as a +5 underdog and have been bet down to as low as +3 in some shops. Like line shopping for the game line, it’s just as equally as important to line shop Ty Chandler’s scoring prop. This is as high as +190 while also as low as +105, a massive difference in value.

Nick Mullens Over 22.5 Pass Completions

The Joshua Dobbs experiment has come to an end, for now. After lighting up the league while simultaneously learning the playbook at the same time, Dobbs fell hard back down to reality as opposing defenses figured out how to slow him down. That resulted in a string of poor performances in a row, now moving toward Nick Mullens in a desperation attempt to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Nick Mullens has shown that he is a better downfield passer, being able to stretch the field with the pass attack. He’s certainly surrounded by a talented group of pass catchers in order to do so, getting the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson at his disposal. Jefferson is currently listed as questionable while everyone else is set to give a go as of this writing.

When airing it out, Mullens will find himself with high quality looks to throw to as coverage has been a weakness for the Bengals defense. Cincinnati comes into this contest ranked 17th in Def Pass DVOA, 24th in Def Pass EPA, and 31st in Def Pass Success Rate. When not creating Havoc, the Bengals secondary has been torched by opposing pass attacks.

Jake Browning Under 242.5 Passing Yards

Jake Browning has swept the nation with his past few performances, lighting up opposing secondaries and keeping the Bengals playoff hopes alive. A shocking sight to see as backups usually spell doom for your season long outlook, yet Browning has done a masterful job once he was allowed to start throwing the ball down the field.

The issue this time around is that he takes on a much tougher defense as the Vikings have done a complete 180 from last year’s poor metrics. As of writing, the Vikings pass defense clocks in at seventh in Def Pass DVOA, sixth in Def Pass EPA, and fourth in Def Pass Success Rate. Factor in the Vikings being in a position to sustain drives down the field and Browning may see his attempts limited as well.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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