Get Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (01/07/24) matchup.
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. The Vikings are currently a +3.5 underdog and +164 on the moneyline while the total is set at 45.5. Expect Jared Goff to be limited while Nick Mullens, Jordan Addison, and Ty Chandler lead the Vikings offense, all giving value as player props for this Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
Jared Goff Under 223.5 Passing Yards
Dan Campbell has been relatively unclear about how much he is going to play his starters in this matchup. He’s in a peculiar position as the Lions still have a puncher’s chance of getting the two seed, though it is unlikely given they would need the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles to both lose to sub-.500 teams. With something still on the line, Campbell has announced that he has no plans of resting his starters.
While Jared Goff and company may be starting, that doesn’t mean they won’t be pulled later in the game. Even if Goff stays in longer than expected, the under still brings intrigue as he battles it out against an elite coverage unit. The Vikings secondary enter this contest ranked 10th in Def Pass DVOA, 13th in Def Pass DVOA, eighth in Def Pass Success Rate, and 12th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate.
On top of Goff having to deal with an impressive coverage unit, he has to also face a front seven who blitzes at the highest rate in the league. Failing to recognize a potential blitz package may lead to a dirt ball, wasting a down and increasing the chance of a stalled-out drive. With Goff expected to struggle, as well as potentially be benched early into the contest, take his under on his passing yards in what may be an underwhelming game.
Ty Chandler Anytime Touchdown
While the Lions have question marks surrounding their starting roster, the Vikings come in at full strength as they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs. That means a normal snap count for Ty Chandler, giving him a good chance of cashing this prop as he leads the Vikings backfield against a weak Lions defense.
Touchdown Ty Chandler! @Vikings even the score.
— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023
Granted the Lions field an excellent run stopping unit, ranking third in Def Rush DVOA and fifth in Def Rush EPA and now defend against a Vikings rush attack that ranks 27th in Rush DVOA. While that potentially spells trouble for Chandler’s production inside the red zone, the increased number of scoring opportunities will more than make up for the potential struggles.
Nick Mullens Over 265.5 Passing Yards
After the failed Jaren Hall experiment, Nick Mullens has been thrusted back into starting duties as he gets another shot to put up numbers against a weak Lions secondary. When he wasn’t throwing to the wrong team to the tune of four interceptions, he faced little resistance with moving the ball down the field as he finished with 411 passing yards and two passing touchdowns.
The Lions struggles in coverage cannot be overstated as they head into this contest ranked 16th in Def Pass DVOA, 24th in Def Pass EPA, 27th in Def Pass Success Rate, and 20th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. When the Lions are not generating backfield pressure, opposing quarterbacks have had no issue with shredding this secondary.
That is in large part of Aaron Glenn’s system, anchoring the Lions linebackers short across the line while dropping back the safeties. That creates gaps all over the middle of the field, giving opposing quarterbacks higher quality opportunities to connect with their receivers in stride. Factor in the Lions starters potentially being pulled later in the contest and Mullens should be in a better position to succeed at his second crack against this defense.
Jordan Addison Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
With Nick Mullens in a position to thrive, Jordan Addison is set up nicely to have a high-yardage outing in Week 18. He was held to just one reception for two yards in their previous contest as he got injured and was ruled out for the rest of the game.
With Addison back to full health, expect him to make an instant impact as Mullens second go-to option in a bounce back spot after just hauling in three receptions for 28 yards against the Green Bay Packers. Addison’s production is especially vital with TJ Hockenson being ruled out for the rest of the year, needing someone else to step up while Justin Jefferson gets routinely double teamed in coverage.