Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday at 1 pm EST in Green Bay as a home game for the Packers. The Vikings are currently a -1.5 favorite and -120 on the moneyline while the total is set at 41.5. Expecting both teams to duke it out in a tight contest, expect the likes of Jordan Love, Kirk Cousin and Aaron Jones to shine as valuable player props for this Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers matchup.
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After seemingly hitting their floor after a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Packers somehow outdid themselves with an even more embarrassing performance against the Denver Broncos. Seemingly unable to generate any offense against the worst defense in the league, Green Bay raised serious question marks around Jordan Love. Now in desperation mode, Jordan Love and company look to bounce back against an improved Vikings defense.
Jordan Love Over 217.5 Passing Yards
After getting off to a hot start, Jordan Love has mightily regressed the past few weeks. He flirted with turnover worthy plays all season long, now turning those into actual interceptions and batted balls as he tried to make the throw under pressure. A sad sight to see as he is surrounded by talent, holding the offense back to something that could be lethal.
It’s hard to place all of the blame on Love as his offensive line is doing him no favors. They currently rank 22nd in Adjusted Line Yards, routinely getting pushed back from the snap and are dealing with numerous injuries across the line.
Lucky for Jordan Love this time around, the Vikings defensive scheme may play right into his hands as Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the league. On paper that should spell doom for Love as he folds under pressure, but the Vikings high blitz rate only results in the 20th highest Pressure Rate.
That leaves the Vikings middle of the defense exposed, giving Love the opportunity to connect with his receivers on slants and dump offs. Both high quality throws that he can make in a pinch, avoiding the pressure and negating his turnover worthy tendency. That keeps drives alive, giving an uptick in volume as they move the ball down the field.
Jordan Love Longest Completion Over 34.5 Yards
Taking the over on Love’s Longest Completion prop sounds counterintuitive after breaking down how he will succeed on short throws across the middle, but it’s the previously mentioned style that will be able to set up the long ball. While not entirely accurate, Jordan Love shows no fear with trying to sling it down field to a streaking Christian Watson and Jayden Reed.
Watch Jordan Love as he releases this pass…
Moving to his right and just kinda lofts it all the way to his left for the TD.
Wasn’t a perfect throw, but still very impressive at this angle (wait for the slow-mo). pic.twitter.com/poxsdpYDba
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) October 25, 2023
Especially if Love finds success right out of the gate picking apart the Vikings thinned out coverage, forcing them to creep up the field and potentially exposing the back end. This prop can also cash in a aforementioned dump off, getting their playmakers in the open field behind a blitz and breaking one out against a thinned out secondary.
Alexander Mattison Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. That has been the motto with taking Mattison under rushing yards and they continue to cash week in and week out. He had an opportunity to take advantage of a weak 49ers rush defense and still failed to eclipse his number. Even after a long run to start the game, as well as getting the benefit of having the lead and playing in a run heavy game script.
The issue for Mattison is that he is starting to lose out on attempts as Cam Akers gets more integrated into the Vikings offense. Akers even finished the last contest with more rush attempts, finishing with 10 attempts to Mattison’s eight. The Packers rush defense is an issue, but their offense is in a position to make this a shootout and will force the Vikings into a heavier dose of the pace as they stay within scoring pace.
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
With the spread indicating this will be a tight contest, the Vikings will be forced to lean on a heavier dose of the air attack as Cousins continues to thrive throwing to Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. Especially with the ground game failing to generate any sort of consistent production, being better off continuing to throw it against a weak Packers defense. A Packers defense that currently ranks 25th in Def Pass DVOA and 23rd in Def Pass Success Rate.