Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Green Bay Wisconsin as a home game for the Packers. The Vikings are currently a -1.5 favorite and -108 on the moneyline while the total is set at 41.5. Read on for more Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers best bets and predictions as the Packers look to get up off the mat and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet
Just when Green Bay fans couldn’t think it could get any worse, the Packers have seemingly found a new low by losing outright to the Denver Broncos. While losing to the Broncos isn’t necessarily the reason for it being a new low, it’s how they did it as the Packers offense could not find any sort of downfield consistency against the worst defense in the league. The Broncos were on pace to rank as the worst defensive team since the start of tracking DVOA.
The Packers now host a much-improved Vikings team, especially on the defensive end where they have gone from near dead last in Def DVOA last year to around league average this season. While the quality of defense may be a step up, the Packers offense may actually benefit more from the scheme that the Vikings defense deploys. The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league, yet only rank 20th in Pressure. That leaves them exposed across the middle while also giving Jordan Love extra time in the pocket to make the right read.
Avoiding pressure is especially vital for Jordan Love who has mightily regressed since his hot start to the season. Love flirted with turnover worthy throws early on without detrimental results, now fully crashing in regression as his throws start to turn into interceptions and batted balls. This has drastically halted the Packers offense, being prone to stalling out mid drive as Love folds under pressure. Without said pressure, Love should find himself in higher quality throwing situations and keep drives alive.
On the other end, the Vikings pass attack will once again be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison has done a great job at stepping up as a go-to target, yet the Vikings pass catching unit runs thin outside of him and TJ Hockenson. Factor in a practically non-existent ground game from the duo of Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers and the Packers can sell out in coverage in an attempt to force Kirk Cousins to beat them in with tight throwing windows.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Prediction & Best Bet: Packers +2
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Even at rock bottom, oddsmakers still have this pegged as a tight contest by opening the Vikings as a -1 favorite. Bettors lean towards Minnesota’s favor after a shocking win over the 49ers, betting the Vikings up to as high as -2 in some shops. The line movement makes sense, but scheme wise this plays into the Packers hands as their offense is poised for a bounce back.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 45.5. Bettors believe this opened way too high, betting the under down through the key number of 45 to the next key number of 42. Some shops have gone through 42 as well, currently sitting at 41.5 as of writing.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Key Injuries
While the Vikings are relatively healthy, the Packers injury report currently has Aaron Jones, Jaire Alexander, and multiple offensive linemen listed as questionable.
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Key Matchups
Can the Packers ground game churn out rushing production against the Vikings front seven?
Packers Backfield Vs. Vikings Front Seven
While Aaron Jones is listed as questionable, he is currently expected to play and will be accompanied by his bull back AJ Dillon. They are arguably the best rushing duo in football yet have struggled to get the ground game going as they are currently ranked 27th in Rush DVOA.
Aaron Jones doesn’t run, he glides. pic.twitter.com/qn8JaqpTwX
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) October 25, 2023
They are now in a position to succeed as the Vikings mightily struggle at containing rushing production at the line. The Vikings front seven currently ranks 24th in Def Rush Success Rate, routinely allowing opposing running backs to cut the distance to gain in half and converting on later downs. This bodes well for a Packers offense who struggles with consistency, now getting friendlier distances to gain off the backs of their ground game.