Missouri vs. Georgia kicks off this Saturday (11/04/23) at 3:30 EST in Athens, Georgia as a home game for the Bulldogs. Get Missouri vs. Georgia predictions and best bets below as our best bet is the over in what will be a high-scoring affair.
Missouri Vs. Georgia Prediction
No Brock Bowers, no problem for the Georgia offense. Carson Beck rattled off a dominant performance in his last game against the Florida Gators. Beck threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns, proving that the Georgia offense has plenty of pass catchers to make up for the lost production of the injured star tight end. As for Missouri, it cruised against South Carolina as Brady Cook shredded the secondary, while its ground game finished things.
The Tigers are now starting to capture some attention. They have quietly been one of the better teams in the SEC, now getting a chance to create some chaos with a tie-breaking win over Georgia. They certainly have the offense to do so, especially with Brady Cook excelling. He has led the Tigers pass attack to metrics of seventh in Pass Success Rate, 12th in Pass PPA and 54th in Pass Explosiveness.
While his play certainly decides the outcome on the Tigers end, it will be their revived ground game that potentially gives them the push they need. This has been a struggle for Missouri at this point of the season, ranking 95th in Rush PPA, 82nd in Rush Success Rate and 98th in Rush Explosiveness. Georgia has struggled at times to contain Rush Explosiveness as the Bulldogs clock in at 82nd. Their second level will have to be stretched out in order to provide more coverage against Cook and Co.
It’s tough to back the idea of Missouri finding success in an area they have struggled for a majority of the season. But their backfield does come in with some momentum after lead back Cody Schrader rushed for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts in his last game. With Georgia’s second level taking a step back in coverage, Schrader will once again find himself with plenty of open field to work with when he escapes through the trenches.
Georgia boasts one of the most-talented units in football. Carson Beck is starting to generate more consistency with his arm and has started to stretch the field with an uptick in the downfield attack. Especially in the mid field as Georgia ranks fifth in the nation in Pass Success Rate. They have major advantages through the air against Missouri’s secondary as the Tigers rank 41st in Def Pass Success Rate, 58th in PPA and 56th in Explosiveness.
Missouri Vs. Georgia Prediction: Over 54.5
Missouri Vs. Georgia Best Odds
Even with Missouri playing as one of the better teams in the SEC, oddsmakers still have this pegged as the Bulldogs game to lose as they opened Georgia as a -15.5 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the spread, keeping the number the same since the open.
As for the total, oddsmakers believe points will be scored at a fast pace as they opened the number at 56.5. Bettors believe points may come at a slightly slower rate, backing the under down to as low as 54.5 as of this writing. This sets the total at a dead spot between the key numbers of 56 and 52, potentially being better off waiting to see if this continues to drop at the benefit of the over.
Missouri Vs. Georgia Key Matchups
Can Georgia’s stable of running backs find success against the Missouri front seven?
Georgia Rush Production Vs. Missouri Front Seven
Once being the staple of Georgia’s offensive success, the ground game now takes a back seat to Carson Beck and his throwing ability. Still, Georgia touts plenty of star-studded running backs who are more than capable of opening up the field off the backs of their rush production.
Daijun Edwards with the TD run pic.twitter.com/EbP4xDOufa
— Back2Back 704 Dawg ➐ (@FSFRecruits) October 28, 2023
While Missouri ranks above average in def rush metrics, they now have to maintain those marks against one of the best offensive lines in football. An offensive line that is more than capable of opening up gaps for Georgia’s running backs to exploit, potentially churning out chunks at a time against a Missouri front seven that ranks 85th in Def Rush Explosiveness.