MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Marlins vs. Red Sox, White Sox vs. Angels & More from Thursday’s Slate (6/29/23)

It’s a bit of a bigger slate of games than usual on Thursday, with 24 teams in action around baseball. Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are among the top pitchers in action. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets from Thursday’s action.

MLB Best Bets for June 29, 2023

Here’s a look at the best bets from Thursday’s slate of MLB games, featuring Astros over 4.5 runs, White Sox Moneyline, Josh Naylor HR, and Marlins-Red Sox under.

Astros Over 4.5 Runs vs. Cardinals (-120)

This feels like a bet you can’t overthink. Adam Wainwright has been one of the least inspiring pitchers in baseball in his final season, and his struggles don’t feel like a fluke.

With a 5.36 FIP, 1.82 WHIP, and the lowest strikeout rate of his career, the Cardinals great just doesn’t have it right now. His numbers haven’t been much better at home than on the road, and the Astros look like they’re finding an offensive rhythm after erupting for 10 runs on Wednesday night.

Wainwright allowed 11 hits in just three innings in his last start, and he’s only had one start this season with fewer than seven hits allowed. The Astros don’t strike out much and make contact. It’s an all-around bad matchup for Wainwright.

White Sox Moneyline (+128) vs. Angels

We’re starting to see a little something from Lance Lynn, who had a really tough time the last time he faced the Angels. Lynn struck out 16 Mariners earlier in the month, and he delivered a respectable performance in a win his last time out.

Lynn is unlikely to give the White Sox a shutdown outing, but with a strikeout rate just under 11 per nine innings and his control seemingly improving, the outlook is better than the numbers indicate. Lynn’s FIP is also much better than his ERA.

With Luis Robert on a complete tear and Patrick Sandoval having allowed 8+ hits in four of his last five starts, the White Sox should have enough in the tank offensively to give Lynn some support. White Sox +128 has some real value.

Marlins vs. Red Sox Under 9.5 Runs (-115)

Brayan Bello and Jesus Luzardo are two of the most exciting young pitchers in the sport right now.

Luzardo has had a couple blowups in recent weeks, but he’s been dominant when he’s on. Luzardo is coming off seven shutout innings with three baserunners allowed, and he allowed just two baserunners in a start against the Royals earlier in June.

The Red Sox hit well at home, but they’re more dangerous stringing together hits right now than they are hitting home runs. With a season-low .400 SLG in June, Boston might need to string together hits against a pitcher who hasn’t allowed many lately.

Bello, meanwhile, has quickly developed into a building block for the Red Sox. He has a 3.27 ERA on the season, gives Boston length with his efficient outings, and has allowed more than 2 ER in a start just once in his last 10 appearances. The Marlins have been hitting well in this series, but they’re still a team that lacks consistent power outside of Jorge Soler and sits 24th in runs per game. Facing Bello could be what quiets Miami’s offense. Under 9.5 runs is easily attainable with these pitchers.

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Zack Greinke has a home run rate of 1.7 per nine innings this season, and he’s shown some regression recently with a 9.00 ERA and five home runs allowed across four starts in June. If there’s one player who has a realistic chance of homering off of the future Hall of Famer and can give you good value, it’s Josh Naylor.

Naylor is batting .313 with 7 HR and an .843 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, and he’s been red hot lately. Since June 6, he’s hitting .370, with two more doubles added Wednesday night.

Such solid contact means the home runs come eventually, especially for a powerful hitter like him, and they’ve started to come with two in his last seven games. Can he add a third in this hot streak? The Royals give him a great chance on Thursday.