MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Sunday’s Slate (10/8/23)

The postseason rolls on with two more ALDS matchups on Sunday. The state of Texas came up big on Saturday, but only one game produced a NRFI. Where is a NRFI bet best poised to hit on Sunday?

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for October 8

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Sunday’s two games.

Rangers vs. Orioles NRFI (-146)

Lines tend to lean a bit more heavily toward quiet first innings in the postseason, and that’s by design with how intense the start of a game can be. Pitchers are fired up by the crowd, and it can take hitters a bit to relax and settle in. We saw that on Saturday in Baltimore, when NRFI bettors were rewarded. On Sunday, the pitching matchup looks even better.

Jordan Montgomery goes for the Rangers after his excellent Wild Card Series start in Tampa. Montgomery has been steady early in games this season, allowing just three home runs between the first and second inning. While hitters are batting .264 against him in the first, their OPS is still only .700.

An Orioles offense that finished the regular season on a cold stretch couldn’t cash in on opportunities in Game 1, and Montgomery might be too steady to even give them the chance early in Game 2.

Grayson Rodriguez’s nerves are the biggest question facing the Rangers, but the results lately have been tough to argue with. Opponents are hitting .226 with a .569 OPS against Rodriguez over his last 12 starts, and based on his minor-league track record, this doesn’t look like a fluke. While the line doesn’t have too much value, NRFI is still the better bet in Baltimore.

Twins vs. Astros YRFI (-104)

Some offenses need time to gather momentum after so much time off. Not the Astros. Houston scored early and often in Game 1, including a first-pitch home run from Jose Altuve. The Twins’ lineup showed some early fight as well, putting two runners on base in each of the first two innings but not cashing in against Justin Verlander.

Whether Minnesota can cash in against Framber Valdez is questionable because of the way Valdez limits home runs, but he has a 4.66 ERA over his last 14 starts. There’s so much value on this line because Valdez does tend to do very well the first time through the order. The better chance to score early lies with Houston’s offense.

The numbers against Lopez in the first inning this season speak for themselves. Opponents are hitting .298 with an .837 OPS in the frame, and Lopez has a 4.78 ERA. Those numbers obviously get much better later in games, but in Houston facing a dangerous top of the Astros lineup, Lopez is at risk of dealing with the same early troubles Bailey Ober experienced in Game 1.