Monaco vs. Paris Saint-Germain Ligue Un Odds, Picks, Predictions (2/11/23)
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PSG are well on their way to capturing yet another Ligue Un title, but in recent weeks, they’ve hit something of a rough patch.. Monaco, meanwhile, are right in the thick of a pretty tight battle for a Champions League berth, in which they are two points behind third-place Lens. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for this enticing Saturday matchup.
Monaco vs. PSG Odds
Monaco are slight underdogs at home, with odds of +190 to win. The draw is set at +260 and PSG’s line is +140, so Vegas sees this one as a game that could go any way. For a goalscoring total of 2.5, the over is -150 while the under sits at +120.
Monaco vs. PSG Prediction & Pick
What’s going on in Paris? After winning 14 times and drawing twice in their first 16 league matches, they’ve lost two and drawn one of their last 6. Adding insult to injury, they’ve fallen out of the Coupe de France once again, as the attack was just not the same without Kylian Mbappé in a 2-1 loss to Marseille. They’re by far the most talented team in France, and they’re in the discussion for the best roster in the World too, but we are learning quickly that not every game is a guaranteed win for PSG, even domestically. It’s worth noting that PSG’s losses in the league and cup were at the hands of the second, third, and fifth place team in the Ligue Un table; Monaco sit in fourth, and they did draw the reverse fixture in Paris back in late August.
I don’t want to overthink this one; form is important to consider, but at a certain point, we have to give respect to PSG’s players and what we know they can accomplish. This game is also their last tune-up before an enormous clash with Bayern, I think the players will be very aware of that fact and looking to go into that match on a high note. Frankly, getting a team like this in plus-odds in a domestic match is pretty incredible value, so my pick on the moneyline is PSG +140, an early candidate for best bet of the year. For the scoring total, we are talking about the top-two scoring sides in Ligue Un, but the second-best (PSG) and tenth-best (Monaco) defenses. PSG are in a bit of a funk, but if they can snap out of it and/or Monaco are able to contribute anything at all- which they should, PSG haven’t secured a clean sheet in any of their past 5 matches against top-flight competition- the over is pretty likely. The odds are pretty chalky, but I really do like over 2.5 goals at -150, which can be bet either on its own for a safe play or even as one leg of a small parlay.
Key Matchups
PSG Attack vs. Monaco Defense
Of course, we all know about PSG’s big attacking trio of Messi, Neymar, and Mbappé. The three have all scored double-digit goals in the league already, and Messi and Neymar are tied with 10 assists apiece. Still, the group is very different without Mbappé in the mix. In the recent Coupe de France match against Marseille, Messi slid up from the CAM position to play striker aside Neymar, in what is usually Mbappé’s spot. In stepped Vitinha, who does not have a single league goal or assist to his name despite having played 14.5 90s in the competition so far. It was a curious choice, but one that reminded us that while PSG has undeniably the best starting front three in the World, there’s not much to speak of when it comes to depth.
It’ll be interesting to see how PSG’s two-striker approach pays off against a defense that is anchored by a strong, but somewhat streaky centre-back duo. The two players in question are Frenchman Axel Disasi and Guillermo Maripan, both of whom have contributed significantly in attack- 3 goals for Maripan, 2 goals and 3 assists for Disasi- but it’s come at the expense of their defending, to an extent. That has only been half true for Caio Henrique, a Brazilian fullback who leads the team with 7 assists but has also been excellent in defense. As perhaps the team’s best player, it’ll be vital for him to have a big day against the best attacking group he’ll face all year.
Monaco Attack vs. PSG Defense
Similarly to PSG at the moment, Monaco’s attack hinges on a pair of strikers who play together up top. The two men in question are Swiss international Breel Embolo and veteran Wissam Ben Yedder. Both forwards have precisely 12 league goals and 2 assists, although Ben Yedder has scored 4 of his from the penalty spot. In addition to Henrique, there’s another versatile playmaker who provides major support for the attacking group, and that’s attacking midfielder Aleksandr Golovin, who plays all over the pitch and has 4 goals and 6 assists to his name thus far. It’ll take excellent efforts from everyone involved, but this group has every ability to bag some goals against a somewhat vulnerable PSG defense.
That defense features the unlikely veteran centre-back pairing of team mainstay Marquinhos, and the legendary Sergio Ramos, both of whom are having solid although not quite excellent seasons. That’s a distinction I’d use to describe right-back Achraf Hakimi, possibly the team’s best attacker outside of the MNM forward trio, as well as a truly World-Class defender. The other fullback will likely be Portuguese youngster Nuno Mendes, who is putting in an outstanding season, and the man behind it all is goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. The young but incredibly accomplished Italian is not necessarily having his best year, but he has all the ability in the World; he and this defense, when everyone’s at their best, is a seriously tough nut to crack.
