Mountain West Odds, Predictions, Betting Preview 2022 College Football

Mountain West Conference Betting Preview & Odds

General thoughts on the conference can quickly summarize favorites, values, and teams you don’t like in a paragraph or two.

The Mountain West is always an underrated conference. There are some really great players that populate some really good teams. It sometimes feels like this G5 conference can compete with some of the P5 teams.

Utah State emerged victorious in the Mountain West last season, while San Diego State continued its run of dominance atop the West Division. But there are plenty of shakeups this season, and a new team is bound to emerge as this season’s Mountain West surprise.

Let’s take a look at the Mountain West Conference Betting Odds and the best Mountain West Conference Futures bets to make.

Boise State Broncos Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Boise State enters the season as the favorite to win it all and a win total between 8.5 and 9.5. But they won just seven games last season and went just 5-3 in the conference. Their Bowl Game also got canceled.

Are we really this high on the Broncos?

Well, they were unlucky last season. Their five losses came by an average of six points and their 1-2 start was driven by a one-point loss to Oklahoma State and a five-point loss to UCF. I think you’ll see some positive regression for Boise going forward.

Moreover, this team returns a whopping 17 starters, including QB Hank Bachmeier, RB George Holani, 86 career starts on the offensive line – including two All-Mountain West conference linemen – and nine defensive starters. ESPN’s SP+ projections mark Boise State as the 14th-best defense in the nation this season!

But this is a brutal schedule. Three of their first four games are on the road, and I don’t count a lot of easy wins. And the offense isn’t going to be special, likely middle of the pack.

Plus, there’s no value in betting the chalk. I’m laying off this team entirely.

Potential Bets:

• None

Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

We love Jake Haener. He paired a 67.7% completion with 3,800 yards and a 32:9 TD-to-INT ratio. He, alongside top WR Jalen Cropper, led the Mountain West’s most potent offense last season (33.6 PPG). Fresno finished top-five nationally in Passing Success Rate, as well.

They went 10-6, covered eight of their 13 games, and finished with a 10-3 record and a New Mexico Bowl win. They got as high as No. 18 in the AP poll, as well.

Now, they return 15 starters in total and their top four tacklers. There are some replacements to be made on the defensive end, but the offense will be every bit as explosive and should be the best in the Mountain West.

Their schedule isn’t tough, but they do get Boise State and USC on the road while hosting Oregon State in Week 2. But I don’t see how anyone challenges them in the West, where they’re a whopping -140 to win. The win total is 8.5 but also heavily juiced at -140.

I’ll look to target Fresno a lot this season, but will pass in the pre-season just because of the chalk.

Potential Bets:

• None

Air Force Falcons Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

This is going to be a special year for Air Force.

15 starters return after a 10-3 season (9-4 ATS). That includes QB Haaziq Daniels, over 80% of their rushing production, and eight offensive linemen. They finished just 2-3 in one-score games last season as well with a brutal, unlucky loss at Utah State.

Moreover, it’s likely that Air Force is favored in every single game this season. They avoid Fresno State and get Boise State at home. The toughest spot on this schedule is San Diego State on the road in Week 13. They do not face any explosive offenses either and will compete on the defensive end.

I think Air Force is live to win the Mountain West and go way over their 8.5 win total. I’ll be on both.

Potential Bets:

• Air Force to win the Mountain West (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Air Force over 8.5 wins (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

You’ll get the same thing you always get with San Diego State. This defense will be superb underneath Brady Hoke, and they return seven defensive starters even if only five of the top eight tacklers return.

San Diego State finished sixth in Defensive Success Rate last season and SP+ has them projected to finish 12th in all of FBS this season in defensive efficiency.

Offensively, they will be horrendous. Only five offensive starters return, but they pick up a huge transfer in former Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister. The guy can scramble and run out of designed sets (521 rush yards at 4.5 per carry last season) and was efficient in the passing game (14:4 TD-to-INT). They’ll be far more explosive, even if that doesn’t mean too much considering the overall scheme.

Unfortunately, they’re still overvalued in the markets. 7.5 wins is slightly too high when you get road games against Utah, Boise State, and Fresno State. They were 0-3 ATS last season as a road favorite, so it may be worth fading them in road games against Nevada and New Mexico, but those two are so bad it’s tough to put the money down.

Complete pass.

Potential Bets:

• None

San Jose State Spartans Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

In SP+’s projections, San Jose State made the third-biggest move in the FBS in projected adjusted points per game (+2.8). Their SP+ projection for defensive efficiency came close to cracking the top 50.

That’s because the Spartans return eight defensive starters including eight of their top 10 tacklers. They only bring back six offensive starters, but they replace former quarterback Nick Starkel with Hawaii’s Chevan Cofderio, who was PFF’s 30th-ranked quarterback last season. He produced 27 Big Time Throws (7.4%, sixth among FBS QBs) to just 9 Turnover Worthy Plays (2%, 16th among FBS QBs).

Seven of the top-eight pass catchers return as well, alongside two WRs that transferred from Nevada. The defense will be top-tier, the offense will take a huge step forward, and the Spartans are live to win some games.

They have six very easy home wins, and can definitely take down Wyoming or New Mexico State on the road. This team should pick up seven or eight wins without a sweat, and I love getting the line at plus-money.

Possible Bets:

• San Jose State over 6.5 Wins (+110)

Utah State Aggies Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

I’d project Utah State for the heaviest amount of negative regression this season. After an 11-3 season (10-4 ATS) underneath second-year coach Blake Anderson, the Aggies came out of nowhere to win the conference.

They won three games last year by four points or less. Their losses were complete blowouts, helping to put together a point differential that does not reflect an 11-3 team.

They have to replace a whopping amount of production on the defensive end. Only five starters return and only one of the top five tacklers. In the meanwhile, QB Logan Bonner loses his top-three WRs.

The schedule includes tough spots like:

• At Alabama in Week 2
• At BYU in Week 6
• At Colorado State in Week 8
• At Boise State in Week 13

The win total has somehow dropped all the way down to 7, including 6.5 at some books. Therefore, there’s no value in fading them at this number. However, there’s no value in Utah State this season and they may even be overvalued at +900 to win the division.

Complete pass.

Potential Bets:

• None

Colorado State Rams Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Jay Norvell comes over from Nevada and brings half a roster with him. There are 12 returning starters for the Rams – six on offense and six on defense – but they’ll be working within a new system and return zero offensive linemen.

The non-conference schedule also includes games at Michigan and at Washington State. They are going to get beat up in September trying to mesh the squad through these brutal games.

However, once Colorado State does start to mesh, we’re going to see some major improvement from Norvell’s squad. The Rams travel to Nevada on October 8th coming off a Bye week. This is a revenge spot for Norvell with a fresh roster and the team will likely be undervalued considering just how bad they looked in the early season.

That’s a hammer spot for the Rams.

Otherwise, I don’t project any value on the Rams from a win total perspective, just because the over 5.5 is juiced to -140 and there aren’t many easy wins.

Potential Bets:

• Colorado State ATS at Nevada in Week 6

Wyoming Cowboys Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

This isn’t great.

Eight starters return in total and none of the important ones. Star RB Xazavian Valladay is gone, alongside both QBs from last season. They lost three starters on the offensive line and 11 of their top 14 tacklers.

All-in-all, it’s one of the least experienced teams in the nation. And they start the season with Illinois on the road! Yikes.

I don’t see many wins on this schedule, and they close the year at Colorado State, vs Boise State, and at Fresno State. They also pick up BYU on the road and Air Force at home.

I’m going under with the Pokes this season in what I expect to be a disastrous season.

Potential Bets:

• Wyoming under 5 wins (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

UNLV could surprise people a bit. They return six starters on each side of the ball, including a deep RB room and nine of their top 11 tacklers, and Marcus Arroyo should make the year three jump as the head coach.

They went just 2-10 overall but covered in seven of their 12 games, ending up competing in a lot of contests they shouldn’t have been. They kept six of their 10 losses within one score.

There are reasons to be bullish. But chalk up road games against Cal, Utah State, Notre Dame, and San Diego State as losses. I also doubt they take down Air Force or Fresno State at home, so I’ll pass on the win total even though I believe they flirt with Bowl eligibility.

The Rebels went 4-2 ATS as a road dog last season, so look towards those spots going forward. I like Week 5 against Utah State and Week 7 against San Jose State, especially the former considering Utah State will be well overvalued this season.

Potential Bets:

• UNLV ATS at Utah State in Week 5
• UNLV ATS at San Jose State in Week 7

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Preview upcoming season – essentially a how to bet this team analysis, covering notes from list above.

Nevada loses its entire coaching staff and returns just five total starters. They lost more lettermen (33) than they return (29). They lose QB Carson Strong alongside the top seven pass-catchers and four offensive linemen.

They managed to get to eight wins last season but led the country in turnover margin and snagged two wins by just three points.

There is nothing to like about this team. Take the under at any number above 4.5.

Potential Bets:

• Nevada under 4.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

Hawaii won’t be as bad as New Mexico, but they’ll be one of the top-10 worst teams in the FBS. And the program is in complete rebuild mode.

The end of last season was a disaster. The whole roster revolted down the stretch against Todd Graham and they were lucky their bowl game was canceled. They now replace Graham with first-year head coach Timmy Chang who takes over a roster with only six returning starters, no QB, and zero of the team’s top seven tacklers.

There’s a chance this team surprises and wins a few games, so I’ll pass on the under 4.5 win total juiced at -150. But I guarantee they won’t be Bowl eligible and will make little noise this season.

Look out for Hawaii in future years with Chang.

Potential Bets:

• None

New Mexico Lobos Betting Odds

• Odds To Win National Championship:
• Odds To Win Conference:
• Regular Season Win Total:

There’s a handful of teams that will be vying for the title of “Worst Team in the FBS”, and New Mexico might be the favorite.

New Mexico scored a whopping 12.2 PPG last season. After whopping Houston Baptist and New Mexico State in Weeks 1 and 2 last season, they scored more than two touchdowns just once in the remaining 11 games. They finished with the nation’s worst Offensive Success Rate.

They snuck one upset win at Wyoming (14-3) but finished 1-7 in Mountain West play. They finished just 1-11 ATS. And things look to be trending down.

They lost their top two rushers and, after starting six different ones last season, don’t have a true QB. Only two offensive linemen return with any experience, as well.

There are seven starters returning and five of the top six tacklers come back. But only UNLV allowed more PPG last season than the Lobos.

They should be dogs in at least nine games last season and have no reason for optimism. Road games include LSU, Utah State, Air Force, and Colorado State. They also pick up Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, and UTEP at home.

Where are the three wins?

I don’t see them reaching the 2.5 number. Heck, the Lobos open against FCS Maine, who tend to field a half-decent FCS team every season. The Lobos are 0-4 ATS vs FCS opponents since 2017, and they should be laying close to 5.5 points here. I will 100% be taking Maine ATS and on the ML in Week 1.

Fade this team into the sun.

Potential Bets:

• New Mexico under 2.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Maine ATS at New Mexico in Week 1

Mountain West Conference Predictions

To recap my favorite pre-season bets from the Mountain West Conference, let’s look at the bets I’ll be making and the bets I’m leaning towards.

Bet Now:

• Air Force to win the Mountain West (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Air Force over 8.5 wins (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• San Jose State over 6.5 Wins (+110)
• Wyoming under 5 wins (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Nevada under 4.5 wins (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• New Mexico under 2.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Prepare to Bet:

• Maine ATS at New Mexico in Week 1
• UNLV ATS at Utah State in Week 5
• Colorado State ATS at Nevada in Week 6
• UNLV ATS at San Jose State in Week 7