Predictions for Mets vs. Nationals: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 1

Monday’s contest between the Washington Nationals (39-44) and the New York Mets (40-41) at Nationals Park is expected to be a close matchup, as our computer prediction projects a final score of 5-4, with the Nationals taking home the win. First pitch is at 6:45 PM ET on July 1.

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Mets vs. Nationals Matchup Info

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Mets vs. Nationals Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Nationals 5, Mets 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs

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Mets vs. Nationals Betting Lines

Mets vs Nationals Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Mets -122 +102 8.5 -108 -112

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Mets Betting Insights

  • New York has been the favorite in 41 games this season, and has come away with the win 21 times (51.2%) in those contests.
  • This season, the Mets have come away with a win 14 times in 29 chances when named as a favorite of at least -122 or better on the moneyline.
  • Contests involving New York have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 43 of 81 chances this season.
  • The Mets were favored on the moneyline in nine of their past 15 games, and they finished 5-4 in those matchups.
  • Over its past 15 outings (all had set totals), New York combined with its opponents to go over the run total nine times.

Nationals Betting Insights

  • Washington has gone 31-39 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 44.3% of those games).
  • The Nationals have a 29-36 record (winning 44.6% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +102 or longer.
  • Washington has had an over/under set by oddsmakers 83 times, and it has combined with opponents to go over the total in 38 of those games (38-41-4).
  • In seven games as underdogs in their past 15 matchups, the Nationals had a record of 2-5.
  • In its past 15 games with a total, Washington and its opponents are 7-8-0 when it comes to hitting the over.

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Mets vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

Mets’ Starting Pitcher: David Peterson

  • The 28-year-old has an ERA of 3.67 and 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, with a batting average against of .260 in five games this season.
  • David Peterson’s team is 2-0 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
  • Peterson’s team has won four of his five starts.
  • Games Peterson has started this season hit the over four times in five chances.

Nationals’ Starting Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore

  • In 16 games this season, the 25-year-old has an ERA of 3.81, with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .272 against him.
  • The Nationals are 4-6 in Gore’s 10 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Gore’s team has a 7-9 record over his 16 starts.
  • MacKenzie Gore has started 16 contests with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in seven of them.

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Mets’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 40-41
Home 21-25
Road 19-16
One-Run Games 16-9
Scoring 5+ Runs 27-13

Nationals’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 39-44
Home 17-19
Road 22-25
One-Run Games 7-12
Scoring 5+ Runs 26-10

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